Who to bat where, challenging conventional thought - Leading off

I think Nats fans have come to accept the idea that the first five spots of the Nationals lineup for 2009 are set in stone. Manager Manny Acta hasn't commented on any possible change from last season other than of course the addition of Adam Dunn, and the lineup in place at the end of the season seemed to work pretty well. 

But what if Acta is wrong? Conventional thought, after all, did lead the Nats to a 102 loss season last year. Sure, Guzman has great speed and contact, but he gets on base at a very poor rate. Milledge gets good wood on the ball but will his power develop in the two spot? Who is really a better number three hitter, Zimmerman or Dunn? What about Elijah Dukes?

Lets start today by looking at the leadoff spot:

Cristian Guzman

Guzman was the Nats leadoff hitter for 40 games in 2008. While hitting in that spot he batted .337 while getting on base at .363, which are very solid numbers for any hitter. His slugging percentage (.448) however, was low enough to logically eliminate him from batting anywhere higher than two in the line up. His on base percentage at this spot, while good for most positions in the line up, is basically just average for a Major League leadoff  hitter. 

Guzman batted number two in the line up for the Nats in 83 games in 2008. He hit .310 while getting on base at only .340. He slugged about the same as he did in the one spot. Here we can see that in 2008 Guzman was more successful in the leadoff spot for the Nats as far as hitting is concerned. Ironically however, while Guzman got on base more often in the lead off spot, he scored more runs in the second spot. 1 run every 7 plate appearances in the #2 spot, and 1 run every 9.4 plate appearances at the leadoff spot. 

2008 is a relatively small sample size however. 

In Guzman's career while batting first he has hit .291/.326/.441. This is where he has earned his rap as a bad leadoff hitter. He's your typical swing at everything, high hits/high outs player. Players like these include: Juan Pierre, a younger Jose Reyes, and Luis Castillo. 

In his career while batting second Guzman's batted .270/.303/.387, which is really pretty bad for anywhere in the line up. It seems for Guzman that while he has the hitters approach to bat second(lots of contact, low strikeouts), he performs far far better in the leadoff spot. Sadly for the Nats however, historically his performance as a leadoff hitter has been not good enough. 

So why the success in 2008 while leading off for Guzman? You could argue it was simply the result of a small sample size within the shortstops career year. This is certainly possible. Another explanation however, could be that the Nats shortstop has matured and at the age of 30 has finally learned how to hit, how to take pitches, and how to get on base. This is possible, but lets not forget that in a full season last year Guzman only drew 23 walks in (Dunn drew 144 last year). 

Lastings Milledge- 

 Milledge is the most athletic player on the Nationals roster. With this he probably one day will have the ability to bat at any spot in the order, which is why we saw him pretty much split evenly playing time at the number two, three, four, and five spot on all be it a weak team. Milledge is unique in that while he has the speed to be a leadoff hitter, but he also has the potential power to be a three, four or five.

Milledge has never hit in the lead off spot in his career, but this doesn't mean he shouldn't be considered. The young outfielder led the Nationals in steals in 2008, and while he only compiled one more walk than Guzman (in a good deal less plate appearances) his first and second half splits are promising for a young player. Overall Milledge put up a line of .268/.330/.402, but in the second half of 2008 in 58 games he had a line of .299/.355/.448. So we can see that Milledge certainly has the athleticism, and is growing the patience to be a potential leadoff. But is his mindset in the right place?

Let's not forget that he did spend time in the Mets organization under the tutelage of the best leadoff hitter of all time, Rickey Henderson. While whether or not spending time with Rickey will do anything positive for your overall mindset is debatable, but the guy knows how to hit in leadoff situations. This lead me to notice an odd trend with Lastings Milledge, he is one of the only players you will find who will hit better with no runners on base. In 287 at bats with no runners on Milledge batted a very solid .286/.337/.446. It's fascinating, he not only gets on base at a higher rate but hits for power better too. With no one on and no outs, a true leadoff situation, Milledge went .298/.346/.504, not bad for a 23 year old.

Adam Dunn

Chill out...just read it:

When Adam Dunn was in his second year for Cincinatti, then Reds manager Bob Bo

one (yes our Bob Boone) tossed out the idea of the 6 foot 6 super slugger leading off. He got a lot of flack for it, and while he gave it an attempt every now and then there was great pressure from the media and the fans to plug that big donkey back in the heart of the order. But Boone may have been on to something...

Dunn, especially in his younger days, was an extremely underrated baserunner. You wouldn't expect someone of his size to be a base stealing threat, but in the minors and his first full season in the majors he was stealing 20 bags a year. While today that may be a lot to expect from the 29 year old 275 pounder, he can still run around the bases like the former Texas University football recruit he was. 

Fleet feet aside, the experiment to hit Dunn at leadoff had many progressive baseball fans excited. There were several basic principles behind the idea. First, hitters (except Milledge) hit better with runners on base, and Dunn gets on base better than just about anyone in baseball. Second,  power hitters like Dunn hit for better power with the bases empty, because pitchers are more confident in trying to pitch to them. And lastly, if your team can score first you have a higher percentage of winning the ball game, and while batting your big bopper may make it more likely to score only one or two runs in the first as opposed to a big inning, it still gives you that early lead. 

Dunn has only batted leadoff in 17 games and 56 at bats in his career. At that spot he only batted .217, but got on base at .371 and slugged .569 for a very impressive OPS of .961. While this is a small sample size, the most impressive stat for his leadoff experience is that out of his 12 hits, 7 of them were home runs. However no matter where he has batted in the line up, Dunn has gotten on base, which really is the most important thing for leadoff hitters. People point to Dunn's low batting average in 2008, but he actually got on base 38 more times than Guzman did in the same year.

Anderson Hernandez

Hernandez was a career back up infielder for the Mets who got by on the fact that he had a slick glove and nothing else. Early on the Mets hoped he would develop into a career long double play partner with franchise cornerstone Jose Reyes, however his inconsistency at the plate caused them to give up and acquire the veteran Luis Castillo. The Nats acquired 

Hernandz late in 2008 and during his short time in Washington produced incredibly well, almost all but securing himself the second base job in D.C for 2009. 

During his 28 game stint Hernandez put up a line of .333/.407/.383, proving Hernandez as a true slap hitting second basemen. In 11 of those games he batted leadoff for the Nats and excelled even more, to the tune of .360/.429/.420. He was a natural! If small sample sizes tell us anything, and of course they do, Hernandez is on his way to be the best leadoff hitter in history. Sadly, some Nats fans would have you to believe this.

So what should we think about Hernandez? The guy came over after not getting much chance to perform for a division rival and flat out excelled. Hernandez then went on to absolutely dominate the Dominican Winter league in 2008/2009, almost leading the league in batting and showing some serious power. So yes, it's possible that this 26 year old just needed a change of scenery and is finally coming into his own. We have seen this before, a player was a career disappointment for one organization and a star for another. 

But a look at Hernandez's minor league stats may suggest otherwise. In 2005 Hernandez totaled between high A and double A for a line of .315/.357/.421, however the very next year he couldn't produce the same type of numbers, batting an abysmal .246/.282/.291 in trippe A (this is when the Mets acquired Castillo). In 2007 it looked like Hernandez may have finally figured it out, batting .301/.339/.397, but again the very next year he couldn't hit himself out of the minors batting .203/.262/.307 before his inevitable trade to Washington. 

Boys and girls, it seems like what we have here is your typical streak hitter. Great one year, awful the next, totally a matter of luck. I could be wrong, I hope Hernandez comes out and bats .280 and stays a Major Leaguer, but history points to probably not. 

Analysis

Sadly, as we have proven here today, while Cristian Guzman is by no means a desired leadoff hitter he is probably the best option for the Nationals. Milledge could possibly out perform him but we of course want Milledge to develop into a power hitting 30/30 outfielder, so we can't compromise that by moving him up to the number one slot. Dunn would certainly be an exciting change of pace, and probably be more productive as a leadoff hitter than Guzman but we desperately need his bat in the middle. Someone on this team needs to be able to give protection to Zimmerman and Dukes and with limited options it has to be him. And Anderson Hernandez appears to be an apparition, and at 5-9 170 he may not have the wheels to bat leadoff. 

So what do you think? Who bats leadoff in 2009?

Mets vs. Nats series preview

The New York Mets (10-9) will travel to the new Nats Park for the first time to take on the Washington Nationals (6-15) in another short 2 game series. The Mets come into the series needing to capture a win having dropped three in a row, including one to Philly and two at Chicago. The Nats will continue their home stand also in desperate need of a victory, because…well they’re the Nationals.
The struggling hitting won’t catch a break after an Atlanta series that saw the Nats face Hudson and Smoltz, as the they will have to face a pair of lefty’s in the Mets ace Johan Santana, and arguably the most effective starter for them so far, Oliver Perez. Look for another heated series between these two intertwined National League East teams who both have something to prove as both see themselves currently underachieving.

Mets Last Series

The Mets last series resulted in them being the victim of a two game sweep against the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley. The Mets combined to only score two runs and give up fifteen as both the bullpen and the starting pitchers could not stay away from the big inning

Hot: actually…no one
Not: David Wright- 0-6, 2 BB, 1 K 0 RBI
Jose Reyes- 1-8, 0 BB, 1 K

The Starters/Losers
John Maine- 6IP, 2 ER, 2 BB, 6 K
Nelson Figueroa- 5IP, 3 ER, 5 BB, 2K

Probable Starters:

Tim Redding (3-1, 3.27 ERA) vs. Johan Santana (2-2, 3.25 ERA)
Shawn Hill (0-0, 7.20 ERA) vs. Oliver Perez (2-0, 2.49 ERA)

The Hefty Lefties

The Nats will have to go against two of the games best left handed pitchers in back to back nights in this series. Neither Santana nor Perez are prototypical lefties either, they both are power pitchers with lefty type movement which means when they are on…they are two of the harder pitchers to hit around. This is not a good sign as the team as a whole has done very poorly against lefties so far this season.

Good Nats vs. Lefties
Cristian Guzman- .462 BA, .464 OBP, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 1/1 BB/K
Lastings Milledge-.370 BA, .414 OBP, 0 HR, 3 RBI, 2/3 BB/K

Bad Nats vs. Lefties
Ryan Zimmerman- .192 BA, .222 OBP, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 1/0 BB/K
Nick Johnson- .150 BA, .308 OBP, 0 HR, 4 RBI, 4/7 BB/K
Austin Kearns- .105 BA, .292 OBP, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 5/3 BB/K

Overall vs. Lefties- .227 BA, .299 OBP, 4 HR, 24 RBI, 20/33 BB/K

What to look for:

The Nationals got outscored 14-4 in the last series against the Mets, but there have been some slight signs that their bats are starting to wake up. If the Nats can weather the storm against Santana and Perez and get to the bullpen, they may be able to match the Mets bats.

Tonight will Tim Redding (of the Redding Railroad express) will be going for his fourth win of the season. So far as long as he keeps his pitch count down he has been very effective regardless of whom he has pitched against. Shawn Hill will make his second start of the season Thursday as well. Look for Hill to improve upon his last outing in which he showed signs of fatigue after a great start. The bottom line is the Nats have the starting pitchers to win both games this series, but they will need to match the Mets great bats.

One big inning is all it takes; Nats drop second game to the Mets

Everything started off well for the Nats in the game tonight. Matt Chico came out and dealt strikes and kept the Mets relatively off balance through the first four innings. Batters like Kearns and Zimmerman were able to produce for the team for the first time in what has seemed like too long. Through four and a half the Nats played playoff level baseball showing that maybe this season could take a turn in the right direction.

However it’s the little things in baseball that will kill you. Little mistakes like a young starting pitcher not constantly hitting his spots causing is pitch count to reach 90 before the 5th inning. Little things like letting that runner on with 2 outs, because even though he doesn’t score, it’s one more batter you have to face and therefore a few more pitches. The fatigue of Matt Chico is what lead to the big inning for the Mets, and after the 5th inning rally, it was all she wrote…the Mets bullpen took over.

Beware of the Big Inning

In most ball games the winning team will have one big inning that clinches it for them. For the Mets today it was the 5th. A leadoff homer by their sparkplug Jose Reyes led way. Base hits by Ryan Church and then David Wright led way to another bomb by Carlos Beltran, scoring three more before the Nats had recorded an out. It was a four run inning, and that’s all the Mets needed to turn it around.
The responsibility for avoiding the big inning often lies in the hands of the manager. You can argue that after Reyes jacked the solo shot to left, Acta should have taken Chico and his high pitch count off the mound. Some may argue that he had only pitched 4 full innings, but it was clear that he was fatigued. If the homer wasn’t indication enough, maybe the back to back singles should have been…it’s rather surprising he was still in to give a bomb to Beltran.
Big inning stat: Take away the 5th inning from the Mets and instead of 5 runs on 9 hits they would have had 1 run on 5 hits….

When the Nationals play their best baseball they use their great bullpen and strong defense to avoid the big innings. The Nats just don’t have the bats to get in a slugfest, or generally even play behind. Speaking of which….

Where’d the Bats go?

In the 9 game losing streak the Nationals were scoring runs:

7, 4, 4, 0, 7, 4, 3, 0, 2 runs to be exact.

The problem was their pitching, not the run support. Now it appears the pitching for the most part has returned, but the hitting has disappeared. Don’t let the two runs the Nats scored tonight fool you either, they only managed five hits and four walks. I know many of the hitters are coming off injuries, but lets get it together before its too late Nats.

Christian Guzman must read The Nats Blog

After we called for him to be stricken from the leadoff spot for his lack of ability to walk, Guzman tripled his overall season walk total today by walking twice. He now has three walks in 66 plate appearances.

Chad Cordero is clearly not healthy

Yes, Cordero came on in a meaningless situation and retired three of the four batters he faced pitching a scoreless eighth. However, he only threw one pitch that topped 80 mph, a fastball that went to 81. This can not be a good sign for the Nats closer who usually throws in the low 90’s to high 80s with his fastball. A changeup is only effective if it actually is a change in speed.

Another indication of Cordero’s health problems was that he was pitching from more of a three quarters to side arm position, as opposed to his usual over the top. This is a clear indication that his arm and his motion do not feel all right. I watched the game tonight on MLB.TV which means I watched the Mets broadcast not the Nationals(the Mets were home) and Keith Hernandez and Ron Darling were shocked that Acta would even let Cordero on the mound in his condition.

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Young Mike Pelfrey helps blank the Nats

The Mets have been waiting since they drafted Pelfrey 9th overall in 2005 to come around and be a consistent starter in the Majors. It seems as if their wait may be over as the 25 year old blanked the Nats on 5 hits through 7 innings tonight. Washington could not get anything going offensively as a combination of bad baseball decisions and untimely hitting left them scoreless in Shea.
While the loss itself is disheartening, there is one good thing can be taken from this game. The players that beat the Nats weren’t the result of the 100 million dollar payroll of the Mets, in fact the prime producers in this game for New York were Wright, Reyes, and Pelfrey…all home grown talent. Why should this make the Nats feel good? Because it proves that it can work, it proves that the Nats efforts in solidifying their farm system over the last 3 years can finally pay off after some patience. It may not be this year or the next, but the promise is there.


Stupid Baseball:

Milledge answered the booing crowd in his return to Shea with a double to left. With one out he attempted to steal third on Schneider, who has one of the best arms in baseball. The result wasn’t exactly positive; he was gunned down at third. While that is a bad thing in its own right, what really is confusing is why he would steal while already in scoring position and the number three and four hitters due up. There was only one out, a base hit from either Zimmerman or Johnson would have scored him, getting thrown out at third gives him a 0% chance to score.

In the top of the third there was a chance for redemption. Lastings Milledge walked with one out to load the bases for the heart of the Nats order. Zimmerman came to the plate and on the first pitch popped the ball up to the infield allowing no runners to advance. When the bases are loaded with only one out the only really negative things you can do is either strike out or pop out. The basic rule is that with runners in scoring position you only swing at the first pitch if it is one you know you can handle; and by handle I mean…do anything but pop up to the infield. If Zimmerman had drove the ball to the outfield Guzman could have tagged up, even a hard ground ball could have scored the runner with the infield in double play position. Johnson struck out the next at bat, leaving the bases stranded.

The Nats stranded 18 baserunners tonight.

The Batting Order:

No one except Milledge or Guzman are really hitting very well right now. With that said Acta’s use of Guzman in the leadoff spot is confusing me. Acta is a fan of Moneyball, he knows how to get the most out of his low market team and understand the importance of things like when to stay away from small ball, on base percentage, and the importance of good defense. Guzman however while hitting a great .333 on the season is only getting on base .335 percent of the time. That’s not just a poor on base percentage but also an alarmingly low walk rate for any player much less a leadoff. Why not switch Lastings and Christian in the order? Lastings is getting on base 20 points higher then Christian, and Christians ability to put the ball in play makes him the ideal number 2 hitter to smack in Milledge.

Wright and Reyes:


Well I wrote in the preview that a lot of the Mets success would lie in the legs of Jose Reyes. He proved he was healthy, going 4 for 5, only a homer shy of the cycle. Wright had himself a day too, 3 for 4 with two doubles and a bomb, 5 RBI’s. This just shows the example of the types of premium players the Nats will need to become an elite team in the league. Can Milledge and Zimmerman fill those shoes? It’s possible, but keep in mind they’re only a year younger then the dynamic duo from NYC.


Side Note:

Paul Lo Duca did not get the start tonight, probably a result of the injured hand from Sunday. For whatever the reason he did not get a chance to face the hostile crowd in Shea. In his stead started Johnny Estrada who mets announcers Ron Darling and Keith Hernandez had a field day with while making fun of his weight.

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