Nats line-up posed to breakout -BP says

The numbers have been entered into PECOTA, Baseball Prospectus's projection system, and BP writer Jay Jaffe has listed his 'Breakout Bunch: Hitters.' 

"What follows are a handful of players - curiously concentrated among a small number of teams - whom PECOTA sees as excellent breakout candidates at the major league level this year, with Breakout Rates of at least 33 percent. Each is forecast for at least 400 plate appearances, a .275 Equivalent Average, and a 2.5 WARP(Wins above replacement player). "

On the list of seven players were three Nationals.

Elijah Dukes- Projected .278/.386/.486, 4 WARP, 54% Breakout Rate

Lastings Milledge- Projected .281/.352/ .442, 3.3 WARP, 43% Breakout Rate

Ryan Zimmerman - Projected .289/.358/.471, 4.2 WARP, 40% Breakout Rate

This is pretty exciting. Baseball Prospectus is the most reliable people in the business in terms of evaluating talent and projecting success/failure. PECOTA has earned the right to be called the best after years of backing it up. 

Most comforting is that the most reliable source on baseball talent is reassuring Nats fans that we aren't alone in our beliefs in the talent of these players. In the past I've seen many fans of this area of a variety of sports get high on young players that really didn't have much of a future. We get excited, whether it be the Redskins, the Wizards, or even the Orioles, but too often are too biased to see the truth about their abilities. 

This is the first nationally published, positive forecast for the Washington Nationals I may have ever seen. While it isn't calling for much, it is promising to know that this line up could develop into something, and one day be the heart of a competitive team. 

Michael Burgess-Prospect Number 4

Coming from Hillsborough High in Florida, Michael Burgess knows he hasn’t accomplished anything yet. A look at the list of notable alumni from the school that shares the same name of its town will tell you why.

He has shared the same mound as flamethrowers Dwight Gooden and Baltimore Orioles closer Chris Ray. He has roamed the same outfield as sluggers Garry Sheffield, Carl Everett, and yes, Elijah Dukes. All of these names leave Michael Burgess as currently just a blip on the radar of immense baseball talent to come from the Hillsborough Terriers.

Fortunately for Burgess it’s no new thing to join elite company. The young super athlete rarely has been the first to do anything in his legendary baseball community. Instead the outfielder is always evoking the names of past greats that have achieved greatness before him.

In the 5A Florida State Championship finals Burgess pummeled a 470-foot home run to centerfield that cleared a 60 foot centerfield wall, a shot to make Mickey Mantle blush.  The colossal shot thrilled fans but shocked none. The Sarasota crowd had seen it before; Bo Jackson, Frank Thomas, and Ken Griffey Jr. had all done it during their tenure.

That summer Burgess was in the midst of leading his summer ball club, the Cincinnati Redskins, to a 56-5 record. He was playing for the legendary Joe Hayden who had tutored the likes of Barry Larkin, Griffey Jr., Mark Mulder, and Corey Patterson. During one batting practice Burgess delivered a shot to right center that landed on the roof of the sporting complex close to 500 feet away.

Hayden would later tell reporters that he had only seen one other player do that before, Ken Griffey Jr. But Griffey did it three times.

“Plenty of players come out of the area, but how many are going to make it that’s the question. I think about it before I get on the field, and I try to play my heart out to be the next player out of Tampa, Florida to make it to the major league,” Burgess told Sports Illustrated’s Lucas O’Neill.

Hopefully for the Nationals it is the background of Burgess that will push him to achieve greatness. A background like Burgess’s forces humility, it forces drive, and most importantly it forces a talented young man to understand that god given talent just isn’t enough.

The six foot one, 225 pound outfielder was on the fast track to be the number one overall pick out of high school. He opened the eyes of scouts his sophomore year when he batted .505 with 10 homers and 20 stolen bases. He got them to salivate when he batted .511 with 12 homers and 24 stolen bases his junior year. Numbers like that made ball clubs even forget about his 95 MPH fastball and his 0.67 ERA in 20 innings that same year.

He has a build that reminds you of Bo Jackson, and an athletic skill-set that’s not too far off either. In high school Burgess ran a 6.8 60 yard dash and could squat over 600 pounds.

Then his senior year something happened. Burgess had been rated as the nations number one high school prospect, and had won the Jackie Robinson Award for the nations best high school player, yet his senior year he couldn’t muster more than a .338 batting average with only two homers in 25 games.

Burgess had become high school baseballs version of Barry Bonds. It wasn’t anything that he was doing wrong that caused the drop off in his stats, it was the opponents refusal to pitch to him. Pitches in the strike zone became like an endangered species for the  young slugger, who saw seventeen intentional walks before his eight game of his senior year.

Burgess’s draft stock plummeted with the lack of numbers and the inability to reach expectations. Many felt that because he would likely slip out of the top 10 picks in the draft, he would attend Arizona State where he had committed to play that fall. This feeling caused Burgess to drop even further in the draft, all the way to the Washington Nationals third pick, and the 49^th overall.

The outfielder has had solid success in his first two years in professional baseball. In his first year he combined to bat .318 between the Gulf Coast League Nats and the Vermont Lake Monsters. He Slugged 13 home runs and drove in 42 while reaching base at about .400. Starting in Hagerstown his second season he continued to show improved power but showed way less discipline, batting .249 with 18 home runs and 136 strikeouts.

It looks for Burgess that while he can hit the ball a mile he needs to shorten his stroke and make sure he’s making contact. The bottom line is a player needs to be able to bat over .250 in A ball if he wants to make it to the show, regardless of potential and power. Burgess claims he wants to be, ‘the first player to bat .500,’ so lets hope he put a lot of time in the offseason to improve his plate approach and discipline.

Outside of the batters box Burgess continues to impress. He has good hands for an outfielder and his rocket arm from the mound transfers to an all-star level gun from the corner spots. He has solid speed but not a lot of base stealing potential. He will likely start the season in Potomac and if he can continue to progress in the batters box, the 20 year old may only be a year or two from sniffing Nats Park.

HallELIJAH!

Sometimes even on a night when only one player has it going, the team can come out on top. On a night where the teams leading hitter, Cristian Guzman, went 0-7, and the teams number 3 hitter, Lastings Milledge, went 0-5, it was the man in the two slot who put his team on his shoulders and carried them to victory. That man, Elijah Dukes, had himself a career night going 5-6. He stole two bases, scored two runs, hit the game tying homer in the 8th, and the game winning single in the 14th.

Dukes of Hazard

Dukes has come alive, and is showing Nats fans the potential that Bowden and Acta see In him. His season started so abysmally. Dukes hit below the .100 mark for most of the month of May, it wasn’t just frustrating, it was down right embarrassing. The month of June has been much, much kinder to Dukes however. In this month he is batting .347 with a .437 OBP. He has recorded eight extra base hits and swiped five bags.

Austin Kearns, remember him? Dukes took over for him officially after Kearns went on the DL with ‘loose bodies’ in his elbow on May 22nd. On May 21st Dukes’ batting average was a lowly .067, he finished the last week of May with a more then doubled .160 batting average. Coincidence? You tell me. The bottom line though is that since Kearns has gone to the DL, Elijah Dukes has played at an All-Star level.

The bullpen, thank god for the bullpen

The Nats bullpen got destroyed in Minnesota, to the tune of an above 12 ERA. The Rangers are one of the best hitting teams in baseball, so the prospect of a game in which the bullpen had to pitch 8 innings would in most cases look disastrous for the Nats. The pitching staff stepped up however, pitching 12 shutout innings after allowing 3 runs in the second. This is a good and bad thing. Good, because it was an excellent performance all around. Bad, because the Nats now have a tired bullpen and two more games this series.

Game Notes:

Jesus Flores busted out of a mini slump going 3-6 tonight with 2 RBI. He has continued to show good 2 strike, and 2 out hitting. If he can improve his plate patience there is a very real chance that he could be a .300 hitter in the major leagues, smacking 20 homers a year and driving in close to 100 runs.

While I was away...

I apologize for my hiatus, but I have been in Ohio for the weekend without any connection to internet, baseball games, or most importantly, air conditioning. I have made my triumphant return to the district however, and The Nats Blog will return to full operation immediately.

The Nats have taken a turn for the worse in my absence. They have lost 8 of their last 9, they are hitting even worse then before, and the once stellar pitching has become banged up and inefficient.

Here is the write up that was not able to be published for the day night double header by lucky jarmes:

Cardinals Pitchers must have fathered an Elijah Dukes baby:

As he beat the hell out of them. Elijah Dukes, following an impressive day over all at the plate, managed to secure a split of yesterday's doubleheader with St. Louis by blasting a two run homer in the tenth inning of the nightcap.

The Nats bats were active most of the day, though in the day game, runs simply were unable to be knocked in. The Nationals had men on base constantly, and managed to strand 11 runners on base. Things turned around as the sun went down, however.

The Nationals got off to a hot start on a muggy evening last night, scoreing at least 2 runs in each of the first three innings, and one more in the fourth. Though the entire lineup produced, securing 16 hits to knock in 10 runs, Dukes was the stand out last night. Elijah had been pushed up to hte second spot in the order for yesterday's two games, in the hope that he would see more pitches to hit. He did, and proceeded to punish Cardinals pitching all evening. Often early in the count, Dukes went 4-6 on the night, with 4 RBIs. He even recorded a solid non-hit, with a drive to centerfield, which was dropped, opening the door to a three run inning.

Pitching yesterday, however, left little to be desired. After being handed a 7 run lead, Tim Redding went on to allow 5 RBIs to Cardinals pitchers Mike Parisi(2), and Mark Worrell(3). The lead was held at 8-6 through the ninth, setting up a save situation for Jon Rauch. Rauch, after securing the first two outs, allowed a double, triple and single to allow the Cards to tie it up. In the tenth, Brian Sanches allowed a two out home run, to give the Cards the lead.

Guzman answered the lead with a single, followed by Elijah's first homer as a National. The Nats will go on to face the Giants over the weekend. Wave your phones for Elijah, everybody.

Nats vs. Padres series preview

There are three teams in the National League with a worse record then the Washington Nationals (22-30), all of which play in the NL West. The San Diego Padres(19-33) are in dead last of them, and are set to host the Nats for a three game series. The Padres have quietly self-destructed at an alarming rate this year, fallowing what was statistically a worse collapse last season then the Mets suffered. They have preformed awfully, taking a playoff caliber team to have the second worst record in baseball in just one season. The Padres are currently in panic mode, and need to turn their season around.

The Nats on the other hand are playing .500 baseball since their terrible nine game losing streak earlier in the year. While their line up is banged up, and their bullpen is slumping, the once depressingly bad line up is starting to show signs of life. Lastings Milledge is hitting the ball, Ryan Zimmerman is batting .300 this month, and Elijah Dukes is actually making contact! The Nats will need this improved hitting against a solid pitching club in the Padres.

Padres Last Series

The Padres are coming off a series that held an 18 inning thriller in the finale. The Padres had lost two of the first three games against Cincinnati at home, but it took a three run walk off homer from Adrian Gonzalez in the bottom of the 18th to be able to split the series with the Reds. It was a much needed victory for San Diego as they had seen more then their fare share of struggles in the last week.

The Padres saw two of their players go on the DL at the hand of Albert Pujols. A line drive of his bat connected directly with Chris Young’s face forcing him to go on the DL, and in the same inning Fat Albert took out the Padres catcher Josh Bard putting him on the DL as well. These injuries put a serious strain on San Diego as they had a long, personnel consuming series with the Reds.

Who’s hot:

Adrian Gonzalez- 7/19, 3 2B , 2 HR, 6 RBI
Kevin Kouzmanoff- 7/18, 5 R, 3 HR, 4 RBI

Who’s not:

Khalil Greene-4/20, 10 K, 0 BB, 2 HR

Probable Starters

Shawn Hill (0-1, 4.08 ERA) vs. Randy Wolf (3-4, 4.76 ERA)
Odalis Perez (1-4, 4.13 ERA) vs. Shawn Estes (1-0, 2.33 ERA)
John Lannan (4-5, 3.57 ERA) vs. Wilfredo Ledezma (0-2, 4.65 ERA)

Meet Adrian Gonzalez

Adrian Gonzalez was the first overall pick in the 2000 draft by the Florida Marlins out of high school. With his draft status he became the first infielder to be drafted number one overall since Alex Rodriguez in 1994, and was hoped by many to be the face of a new rebuilding Marlins franchise. However a wrist injury in 2003 led the Marlins to trade him to the Texas Rangers for the now in jail Ugueth Urbina.
Gonzalez played part time for Texas in 2004-2005 until he was traded in one of the more lopsided trades of the decade. The Rangers shipped off All-Star caliber Gonzalez and Cy- Young caliber Chris Young to the Padres for Adam Eaton and Akinori Otsuka. This put Gonzalez in a situation where he could play behind a solid veteran Ryan Klesko, however a shoulder injury to the former All-Star trusted Gonzalez in the starting position. The Padres have never looked back…
In his first full season as Padre, at the age of 24, Gonzalez batted a cool .304 with 24 homers, 38 doubles and 82 RBI. While his batting average dropped to .282 in 2007, his power again improved with 30 homers, 46 doubles, and 100 RBIs. His combination of youth and success at the major league level has impressed many who believe he can be a cornerstone of this franchise for years to come. His gold glove caliber first base and his smooth swing brings excitement to baseball in Southern California, which has needed it for years.
What makes Gonzalez home run count even more impressive is that he has averaged 27 homers a year in extremely pitcher friendly PETCO Park. His high double count also excites scouts who believe that those gapers will turn to homers as he matures. With this he reminds me a lot of former slugger Rafael Palmeiro. Palmeiro too had struggles with his first team (the Cubs) but found his niche when he got the starting job in Texas at the age of 24. Also like Gonzalez, Palmeiro started to show solid power between the ages of 25-26, but still had more doubles power until he matured. If the Padres have a Palmeiro in the making, we may see a future hall of famer in the works who will annually bat .300 with 35 home runs.

Gonzalez at age:
24- .304, 24 HR, 38 2B, 82 RBI
25- .282, 30 HR, 46 2b, 100 RBI
26- .282, 14 HR, 13 2b, 43 RBI (on pace for 43 HR, 40 2B,133 RBI)
27- ?????

Palmeiro at age:
24- .319, 14 HR, 35 2B, 89 RBI
25- .322, 26 HR, 49 2B, 88 RBI
26- .268, 22 HR, 27 2B, 85 RBI
27- .295, 37 HR, 40 2B, 105 RBI

What to look for

The Nats are coming off of a four game series with Milwuakee, and has only had one day off since May 5th. They are traveling 3000 miles to San Diego for a 3 game series without a day of rest. I’d be very surprised of the Nats (especially the older ones) will be ready to play tonight after such a long road trip. Expect the Nats to be a little tired, and a little jet lagged for their first start. The good news is Shawn Hill took his last start off so he should be as fresh as anyone.

Elijah Dukes is, “Hot,” batting 3/10 in his last three games. The Nats Blog predicted that he may perform better with higher Job security now that Kearns is out. Hopefully this trend continues, if the young Dukes and Milledge could start playing to some potential, it could really energize the Nats into a summer run. Talented youth is always a feel good bonus for a team that is struggling, and even if it doesn’t produce more wins, it will give Nats fans comfort that the team is moving in the right direction.

The Nats are only 3-10 at PETCO Park in their short history. The Nats are only 9-15 on the road this year and are traveling 3000 miles for this game. Shawn Hill is 0-1 on the road this year with a 6.46 ERA and a .358 batting average against.

Injury Report

Paul Lo Duca- Lo Duca got hit in the hand on an inside pitch earlier this year and has been out ever since. Some at the time viewed his absence as a way to avoid playing in Shea for the first time since his bitter departure, but a few weeks later it has become obvious that he was seriously hurt. He is however set to start rehabbing in single A Potomac early next week, and if successful should be up shortly.


Elijah Dukes- Dukes will start his rehab from a hamstring injury in single A Potomac today (Saturday). Dukes went down on opening night and hasn’t seen a baseball diamond since. While he has great talent, he is still a young, raw player who may need to spend a week or two in the minors before he is ready to be called up. Look for Dukes to be back with the big league club in early to mid may.

The Godfather....

Dmitri Young has had to battle his demons.

In 2006 while playing for the Tigers he disappeared; evading police on assault charges. No one knew where Dmitri was; not the Tigers, the police, or even most of his family.

Dmitri was in rehab, at the Betty Ford clinic. Whether or not he was there by his choice is up in the air. What is known is that when he found himself with his hands around his wife’s throat, Young had hit rock bottom. After his stint in rehab the Tigers released him. Dmitri had lost his family, his dignity, and now baseball. Some don’t make the choice to collect everything and rebuild after hitting the low of lows, But Dmitri did.

In 2007, with clean blood and a clean head, Young signed a minimum contract with the only team that would take him, the Washington Nationals. While physically he wasn’t his old self, mentally he was stronger then ever before.

As Yogi Berra once said, “90 percent of this game is half mental.”

Young exploded after earning a starting spot with the Nationals. He led the National League in batting for much of the first half and earned an all star spot in San Francisco. It was the perfect situation fro the Nationals. They signed a player as a gamble for next to nothing only to have his value sky rocket. Young could now be traded to a team he could actually help get to the playoffs and in return the Nationals could get something they could actually use, prospects.

As with Soriano the year before, the trade deadline came and went and found Jim Bowden sitting at his desk, deal-less. Once again a brilliant, or perhaps lucky, move on Bowden’s part turned useless as he was unable to pull the trigger on a deal to further the future of his young franchise.

Young of course stayed on the Nationals, completed an excellent season and won the National League Comeback Player of the Year award. In the off-season he resigned with Washington, and will likely finish out his career there.

While Dmitri will likely never help the Nationals make a playoff push, his value can now be measure in a new way. Stan Caston has asked Dmitri to show two other troubled young ball players through the darkness of troubled times, Elijah Dukes and Lastings Milledge.

So far it appears his wisdom has paid off as neither player has yet to cause any distractions. Milledge has been the best all around player for the Nationals and Dukes hopes to provide a spark when he comes back from his strained hamstring. While Young has yet to play this season, as he is in a tough battle with diabetes, his impact on this franchise may be greater then anyone could ever have thought. The Big Teddy bear may end up being the godfather for the next generation of Nationals baseball.