Nats line-up posed to breakout -BP says

The numbers have been entered into PECOTA, Baseball Prospectus's projection system, and BP writer Jay Jaffe has listed his 'Breakout Bunch: Hitters.' 

"What follows are a handful of players - curiously concentrated among a small number of teams - whom PECOTA sees as excellent breakout candidates at the major league level this year, with Breakout Rates of at least 33 percent. Each is forecast for at least 400 plate appearances, a .275 Equivalent Average, and a 2.5 WARP(Wins above replacement player). "

On the list of seven players were three Nationals.

Elijah Dukes- Projected .278/.386/.486, 4 WARP, 54% Breakout Rate

Lastings Milledge- Projected .281/.352/ .442, 3.3 WARP, 43% Breakout Rate

Ryan Zimmerman - Projected .289/.358/.471, 4.2 WARP, 40% Breakout Rate

This is pretty exciting. Baseball Prospectus is the most reliable people in the business in terms of evaluating talent and projecting success/failure. PECOTA has earned the right to be called the best after years of backing it up. 

Most comforting is that the most reliable source on baseball talent is reassuring Nats fans that we aren't alone in our beliefs in the talent of these players. In the past I've seen many fans of this area of a variety of sports get high on young players that really didn't have much of a future. We get excited, whether it be the Redskins, the Wizards, or even the Orioles, but too often are too biased to see the truth about their abilities. 

This is the first nationally published, positive forecast for the Washington Nationals I may have ever seen. While it isn't calling for much, it is promising to know that this line up could develop into something, and one day be the heart of a competitive team. 

Nats exchange arbitration figures with 4 players

Ryan Zimmerman 

Nationals offer: $2.75 million   Zimmerman asks for: $3.9 million

Scott Olsen

Nationals offer: $2.55 million     Olsen asks for: $3.5 million

Josh Willingham

Nationals offer: $2.5 million     Willingham asked for: $3.6 million

Shawn Hill

Nationals offer: $500,000       Hill asks for: 775,000

Zimmerman bites the dust, gets put on DL

The Nationals finally bit the bullet today and put Ryan Zimmerman on the 15-day disabled list after he had missed the last seven games with a “sore shoulder.” Zimmerman says he hurt the shoulder on a head first slide in the Orioles series, and says it has been sore ever since.

An MRI Monday revealed that Zimmerman in fact had a small tear in his non throwing arm, which was the cause of his discomfort. This is not an uncommon injury for infielders and can sometimes be played through. Zimmerman, however, has made it clear that is not something he is comfortable doing, so for now he will rest and Nats fans will wait.

A player with a similar career and similar talent set, Scott Rolen, suffered the same injury in 2002 and again in 2003. He attempted to play through it two separate times and eventually had to get season ending shoulder surgery, he has never been the same since. Rolens injury however was much more violent. In the 2002 playoffs he collided with the Diamondbacks’ Alex Cintron on a ground ball, and immediately felt a tear. Because it was the playoffs, Rolen stayed in the game and may have severely done further damage.

So basically, this could be bad, but it also could not be. Because it is not in his throwing shoulder his future at the hot corner is secure but if the Nationals are not careful he could go the route of Scott Rolen and never fully regain his hitting ability. The left shoulder is rather important for a right handed hitter. It pulls the guide hand (left hand) through the zone and its mobility is critical for bat control. With a stiff, sore, or weak left shoulder, a batter is more likely to swing and miss, get worse contact, and lose significant power to the left side of the field.

In response the Nats called up Kory Casto. Casto only a year ago was one of the Nats top prospects but he struggled throughout all of 2007 at every level. The now 26 year old will get his second chance to try make an impression in the majors as many scouts have already given up on him. This season in Columbus Casto has bounced back, batting .315/.390/.461 (BA/OBP/SLUG), but has played right field all season. It’s not clear how Acta will use him, but my guess is he will be an emergency third basemen behind Aaron Boone, and will probably see some time in the outfield.