The Nats need to fire Bowden now, not later

Since Mr. Bowden has come to Washington he has made many moves that have raised many eye-brows. He has led the Nationals with an iron-fisted fortitude but without any clear direction. One thing has been for sure however, since 2005, Jim Bowden has been in charge. 

While the team has been far from successful, the man has had some minor victories. His trade for Alfonso Soriano was a steal and brought excitement to RFK. He acquired Milledge for next to nothing and had a gamble payoff in the Rule-9 selection of Jesus Flores. 

But while Bowden has made some positive moves in Washington, it is the moves that he has not made that are most damaging. He did not trade Alfonso Soriano when he was the hottest commodity in baseball. He did not trade Dimitri Young when it was clear Young had no future with the team. He didn't trade Cristian Guzman, Chad Cordero or Jose Guillen. He finally traded Jose Vidro, but long after his value was gone.

Where Bowden has destroyed this team is by not taking advantage of great opportunities. Too many times did the trade deadline pass with Jim Bowden stuck, keeping a player of no value to the teams future, when he could have added productive pieces to a championship puzzle.

This scandal gives Stan Kasten an opportunity he can not pass up. Firing Jim Bowden after he landed Adam Dunn would be otherwise impossible. This scandal however provides them the opportunity to make him the scapegoat, and get him out before he can hurt this team anymore. 

The team can not afford to wait. Unlike many GM's, Jim Bowden has and will hurt this team during the season, not just in the winter. This club needs to start growing immediately. It's roster is absurdly unbalanced and we need a GM who will get in there, roll up his sleeves, and get to work. Not one who want's to hold on to his failed ideas.

Nats strongly considering change- Baseball Prospectus

According to a Baseball Prospectus article by John Perrotto, the Nationals are currently considering firing general manager Jim Bowden following the bonus skipping scandal. 

"The Nationals, according to multiple industry sources, are strongly considering firing general manager Jim Bowden and replacing him with Blue Jays assistant GM Tony LaCava.

Bowden has been implicated in a bonus skimming scandal in the Dominican Republic and is reportedly being investigated by the FBI. Jose Rijo, the former major-league pitcher and a special assistant to Bowden, has taken leave of absence in wake of the allegations.

LaCava is highly regarded inside the game and has interviewed for GM jobs with Pirates and Mariners in the last year-and-a-half. Commissioner Bud Selig reportedly has given Nationals president Stan Kasten permission to hire LaCava without interviewing minority candidates because of the special circumstances of a change of GM being necessitated after spring training has started."

Rijo Bites the dust

The Nationals have fired special assistant General Manager Jose Rijo today following the events and revelations stemming from Esmailyngate. 

Rijo had been asked by Nationals officials to leave the teams training camp in Vierra, Florida earlier this week. However as the scandal has escalated past just the age-changing of Esmailyn Gonzalez and turned into what is now a full out investigation on the Nationals scouting and player development program, someone had to bite the dust.

As a result, the Nats will now close down their academy in the Dominican which had been operated out of Rijo's own baseball complex. 

Heads are rolling, is Bowden next?

Who to bat where, challenging conventional thought - Leading off

I think Nats fans have come to accept the idea that the first five spots of the Nationals lineup for 2009 are set in stone. Manager Manny Acta hasn't commented on any possible change from last season other than of course the addition of Adam Dunn, and the lineup in place at the end of the season seemed to work pretty well. 

But what if Acta is wrong? Conventional thought, after all, did lead the Nats to a 102 loss season last year. Sure, Guzman has great speed and contact, but he gets on base at a very poor rate. Milledge gets good wood on the ball but will his power develop in the two spot? Who is really a better number three hitter, Zimmerman or Dunn? What about Elijah Dukes?

Lets start today by looking at the leadoff spot:

Cristian Guzman

Guzman was the Nats leadoff hitter for 40 games in 2008. While hitting in that spot he batted .337 while getting on base at .363, which are very solid numbers for any hitter. His slugging percentage (.448) however, was low enough to logically eliminate him from batting anywhere higher than two in the line up. His on base percentage at this spot, while good for most positions in the line up, is basically just average for a Major League leadoff  hitter. 

Guzman batted number two in the line up for the Nats in 83 games in 2008. He hit .310 while getting on base at only .340. He slugged about the same as he did in the one spot. Here we can see that in 2008 Guzman was more successful in the leadoff spot for the Nats as far as hitting is concerned. Ironically however, while Guzman got on base more often in the lead off spot, he scored more runs in the second spot. 1 run every 7 plate appearances in the #2 spot, and 1 run every 9.4 plate appearances at the leadoff spot. 

2008 is a relatively small sample size however. 

In Guzman's career while batting first he has hit .291/.326/.441. This is where he has earned his rap as a bad leadoff hitter. He's your typical swing at everything, high hits/high outs player. Players like these include: Juan Pierre, a younger Jose Reyes, and Luis Castillo. 

In his career while batting second Guzman's batted .270/.303/.387, which is really pretty bad for anywhere in the line up. It seems for Guzman that while he has the hitters approach to bat second(lots of contact, low strikeouts), he performs far far better in the leadoff spot. Sadly for the Nats however, historically his performance as a leadoff hitter has been not good enough. 

So why the success in 2008 while leading off for Guzman? You could argue it was simply the result of a small sample size within the shortstops career year. This is certainly possible. Another explanation however, could be that the Nats shortstop has matured and at the age of 30 has finally learned how to hit, how to take pitches, and how to get on base. This is possible, but lets not forget that in a full season last year Guzman only drew 23 walks in (Dunn drew 144 last year). 

Lastings Milledge- 

 Milledge is the most athletic player on the Nationals roster. With this he probably one day will have the ability to bat at any spot in the order, which is why we saw him pretty much split evenly playing time at the number two, three, four, and five spot on all be it a weak team. Milledge is unique in that while he has the speed to be a leadoff hitter, but he also has the potential power to be a three, four or five.

Milledge has never hit in the lead off spot in his career, but this doesn't mean he shouldn't be considered. The young outfielder led the Nationals in steals in 2008, and while he only compiled one more walk than Guzman (in a good deal less plate appearances) his first and second half splits are promising for a young player. Overall Milledge put up a line of .268/.330/.402, but in the second half of 2008 in 58 games he had a line of .299/.355/.448. So we can see that Milledge certainly has the athleticism, and is growing the patience to be a potential leadoff. But is his mindset in the right place?

Let's not forget that he did spend time in the Mets organization under the tutelage of the best leadoff hitter of all time, Rickey Henderson. While whether or not spending time with Rickey will do anything positive for your overall mindset is debatable, but the guy knows how to hit in leadoff situations. This lead me to notice an odd trend with Lastings Milledge, he is one of the only players you will find who will hit better with no runners on base. In 287 at bats with no runners on Milledge batted a very solid .286/.337/.446. It's fascinating, he not only gets on base at a higher rate but hits for power better too. With no one on and no outs, a true leadoff situation, Milledge went .298/.346/.504, not bad for a 23 year old.

Adam Dunn

Chill out...just read it:

When Adam Dunn was in his second year for Cincinatti, then Reds manager Bob Bo

one (yes our Bob Boone) tossed out the idea of the 6 foot 6 super slugger leading off. He got a lot of flack for it, and while he gave it an attempt every now and then there was great pressure from the media and the fans to plug that big donkey back in the heart of the order. But Boone may have been on to something...

Dunn, especially in his younger days, was an extremely underrated baserunner. You wouldn't expect someone of his size to be a base stealing threat, but in the minors and his first full season in the majors he was stealing 20 bags a year. While today that may be a lot to expect from the 29 year old 275 pounder, he can still run around the bases like the former Texas University football recruit he was. 

Fleet feet aside, the experiment to hit Dunn at leadoff had many progressive baseball fans excited. There were several basic principles behind the idea. First, hitters (except Milledge) hit better with runners on base, and Dunn gets on base better than just about anyone in baseball. Second,  power hitters like Dunn hit for better power with the bases empty, because pitchers are more confident in trying to pitch to them. And lastly, if your team can score first you have a higher percentage of winning the ball game, and while batting your big bopper may make it more likely to score only one or two runs in the first as opposed to a big inning, it still gives you that early lead. 

Dunn has only batted leadoff in 17 games and 56 at bats in his career. At that spot he only batted .217, but got on base at .371 and slugged .569 for a very impressive OPS of .961. While this is a small sample size, the most impressive stat for his leadoff experience is that out of his 12 hits, 7 of them were home runs. However no matter where he has batted in the line up, Dunn has gotten on base, which really is the most important thing for leadoff hitters. People point to Dunn's low batting average in 2008, but he actually got on base 38 more times than Guzman did in the same year.

Anderson Hernandez

Hernandez was a career back up infielder for the Mets who got by on the fact that he had a slick glove and nothing else. Early on the Mets hoped he would develop into a career long double play partner with franchise cornerstone Jose Reyes, however his inconsistency at the plate caused them to give up and acquire the veteran Luis Castillo. The Nats acquired 

Hernandz late in 2008 and during his short time in Washington produced incredibly well, almost all but securing himself the second base job in D.C for 2009. 

During his 28 game stint Hernandez put up a line of .333/.407/.383, proving Hernandez as a true slap hitting second basemen. In 11 of those games he batted leadoff for the Nats and excelled even more, to the tune of .360/.429/.420. He was a natural! If small sample sizes tell us anything, and of course they do, Hernandez is on his way to be the best leadoff hitter in history. Sadly, some Nats fans would have you to believe this.

So what should we think about Hernandez? The guy came over after not getting much chance to perform for a division rival and flat out excelled. Hernandez then went on to absolutely dominate the Dominican Winter league in 2008/2009, almost leading the league in batting and showing some serious power. So yes, it's possible that this 26 year old just needed a change of scenery and is finally coming into his own. We have seen this before, a player was a career disappointment for one organization and a star for another. 

But a look at Hernandez's minor league stats may suggest otherwise. In 2005 Hernandez totaled between high A and double A for a line of .315/.357/.421, however the very next year he couldn't produce the same type of numbers, batting an abysmal .246/.282/.291 in trippe A (this is when the Mets acquired Castillo). In 2007 it looked like Hernandez may have finally figured it out, batting .301/.339/.397, but again the very next year he couldn't hit himself out of the minors batting .203/.262/.307 before his inevitable trade to Washington. 

Boys and girls, it seems like what we have here is your typical streak hitter. Great one year, awful the next, totally a matter of luck. I could be wrong, I hope Hernandez comes out and bats .280 and stays a Major Leaguer, but history points to probably not. 

Analysis

Sadly, as we have proven here today, while Cristian Guzman is by no means a desired leadoff hitter he is probably the best option for the Nationals. Milledge could possibly out perform him but we of course want Milledge to develop into a power hitting 30/30 outfielder, so we can't compromise that by moving him up to the number one slot. Dunn would certainly be an exciting change of pace, and probably be more productive as a leadoff hitter than Guzman but we desperately need his bat in the middle. Someone on this team needs to be able to give protection to Zimmerman and Dukes and with limited options it has to be him. And Anderson Hernandez appears to be an apparition, and at 5-9 170 he may not have the wheels to bat leadoff. 

So what do you think? Who bats leadoff in 2009?

Bye bye Odalis

Well..Kasten must read The Nats Blog because the day after we blasted him for his handling of the problems in spring training he at least did something. It was reported today that the Nationals have officially released starting pitcher Odalis Perez for refusing to report to training camp. It was a good call...and it's not too clear what Perez will do now. He might be managed even worse than the Nats front office.

So who's in charge here, really?

Spring training has only been underway for about a week and already peaceful little space coast stadium seems ready to take off.

Everything seemed to be going so well when the club finally got a free agent signed, Adam Dunn, for a contract that was very Nationals friendly. But since that afternoon there has been a severe lack of something very important in the baseball filled chaos that is Florida spring training; leadership. 

It started off simply enough, last years opening day starter Odalis Perez refused to come to camp and instead said he would hold out for a new contract. Happens all the time, this is the NFL right? We do see these types of holdouts a lot in a sport like football. A player signs a contract years ago, has outperformed that contract, and with the high risk of injury of the sport believes he deserves to be paid at the level he is now playing.

Well Perez signed his contract this winter....less than a month ago. Perez had been waived by the Nationals after the season ended because they believed he would want more money than they were willing to pay. Both teams got caught in a bind, Perez couldn't find a home, the Nats couldn't find starters. The compromise was made, and Perez was given a chance at a Major League contract...fair enough right?

Evidently not.

"It's odd," Nationals President Stan Kasten said, "It's a first time for me. I don't know what's behind it."

It's good to see that the president of the club has no ability to take charge of this situation. Allow me to translate:

"Huh...this is weird."

No action, no releasing Perez or setting an example to his club that this type of me first team second attitude is unacceptable. No, instead Kasten is content with just sitting around to wait and see if it's gonna be okay.

This was only the beginning of the Kasten quotes. Following the Esmailyn Gonzalez fallout he was just plain angry, but far from professional: 

"I'm not exactly sure how to refer to him, so for now I'll just call him 'the Player to be named later..An elaborate scheme..I'm angry. I'm very angry. We've ben defrauded. And make no mistake: this wasn't a college kid with a fake ID. This was a deliberate, premeditated fraud, that involved bribes, along with falsified hospital and school records."

We could all feel his frustration, in fact most of us felt the same way. But while this tirade was entertaining it was oh so empty. Who's accountable? Who's to blame? What's the plan stan?Natstown is looking to you here, and you are throwing a tantrum. 

The truth is that nobody will take responsibility for Esmailyn. In a Chico Harlan article with Gonzalez's agent, Stan King, King blamed society saying Gonzalez had to be the victim. 

"I don't know where the origins of this thing are. It seems to me this thing is much too complicated and involved for a 19 - or 20-year-old from an impoverished neighborhood to pull off. He may have been duped himself."

"He sounded remorseful," King said (of Gonzalez). "He sounded contrite, He sounded relieved, as if this weight had been lifted off of him."

So if it wasn't his agent's fault, and it wasn't Esmailyn's fault...someone had to blame. What of that shady 'handler' down in the Dominican. You know...the guy who took Esmailyn into his home, fed and clothed him, trained him, and introduced him to the Major League scouts. A nice guy right? Let's not forget the $230,000 commission he gained in the process.

An ESPN the Magazine report by Jorge Arangure Jr. however cites Basil

lo Vizcaino as blaming Major League Baseball for this whole fiasco:

'What is most troubling for MLB's office in the Dominican Republic is that Lugo(Gonzalez), according to Vizcaino, passed the age investigation requests of at least three teams -- the Nationals, the Yankees, and the Redsox. Two baseball sources said that the Redsox  and Yankees received reports from MLB that confirmed that the player was 16 in 2006. 

Vizcaino said in each instance baseball investigators, who are sub-contracted by MLB visited the player's supposed hospital of birth, the player's supposed school and his hometown of Bani to interview people and to review documents. Each time the player's identity was confirmed, though major league officials were skeptical.'

Well apparently neither Stan King nor Kasten are to blame, nor his Dominican handler or the scout that found him Jose Rijo...nope it's Major League Baseball. An easy target to say the least, you'd be hard struck to find ANYONE who is happy with the MLB right now. If that won't work I'm sure someone on the team will blame it on minorities, the rich, the poor, or the Halle Bop comet. 

But I'm not buying it, and neither is the FBI who took notice when it realized that some recent  Dominican prospects signing bonus money could not be found...anywhere. It let to a major investigation on a bonus skimming scheme that led to the Feds investigating Nats scout Jose Rijo and general manager Jim Bowden.

But Bowden has more pressing matters currently. He has been the General Manager of a team that has gone 284 -363 under his tutelage and currently is put together like a grab bag of McDonalds happy meal toys. 

The club has seven outfielders and one legitimate starting pitcher. The N

ats made their biggest free agent splash ever by signing Adam Dunn, but their next best hitter already plays Dunn's best position. Now at third string at first base is Dimitri Young who shouldn't really be anywhere except at maybe a Hooters wing eating contest, but certainly not here. The Nats had a great opportunity to trade this surprise All-Star in 2007 and in a sense cash in on a winning lottery ticket, instead they are now paying him $5 million dollars to likely start the season in the minors. 

Good call Jim...Good call. 

I think Yahoo Sports columnist Tim Brown put it best when he said:

"The Nationals don't win ballgames, they don't fill their new park (apparently they don't even pay the rent on their new ballpark), they accessorize their roster with misfits and then they don't avoid some very humiliating episodes. What they really need is stability, followed someday by credibility."

By the way anyone here from Stan Kasten recently?

"Thanks for writing," Kasten said in an email to ESPN's Arangure Jr., "But I wont be talking about this anymore for a while."

Nats line-up posed to breakout -BP says

The numbers have been entered into PECOTA, Baseball Prospectus's projection system, and BP writer Jay Jaffe has listed his 'Breakout Bunch: Hitters.' 

"What follows are a handful of players - curiously concentrated among a small number of teams - whom PECOTA sees as excellent breakout candidates at the major league level this year, with Breakout Rates of at least 33 percent. Each is forecast for at least 400 plate appearances, a .275 Equivalent Average, and a 2.5 WARP(Wins above replacement player). "

On the list of seven players were three Nationals.

Elijah Dukes- Projected .278/.386/.486, 4 WARP, 54% Breakout Rate

Lastings Milledge- Projected .281/.352/ .442, 3.3 WARP, 43% Breakout Rate

Ryan Zimmerman - Projected .289/.358/.471, 4.2 WARP, 40% Breakout Rate

This is pretty exciting. Baseball Prospectus is the most reliable people in the business in terms of evaluating talent and projecting success/failure. PECOTA has earned the right to be called the best after years of backing it up. 

Most comforting is that the most reliable source on baseball talent is reassuring Nats fans that we aren't alone in our beliefs in the talent of these players. In the past I've seen many fans of this area of a variety of sports get high on young players that really didn't have much of a future. We get excited, whether it be the Redskins, the Wizards, or even the Orioles, but too often are too biased to see the truth about their abilities. 

This is the first nationally published, positive forecast for the Washington Nationals I may have ever seen. While it isn't calling for much, it is promising to know that this line up could develop into something, and one day be the heart of a competitive team. 

Thrilledge to change to number 85

With the arrival of big name free agent Adam Dunn, Lastings Milledge reached out and made a gesture. The young center fielder deferred to his elder Dunn and gave up his number 44 jersey. Dunn had worn 44 all his career in Cincinnati and Milledge didn't even have to be asked.

"He hit 240 (homers) the last six years," Milledge said. "How...am I going to wear that and let him wear another number?"

Milledge will now wear number 85, an odd number for any Major League player. Traditionally higher numbers are reserved for those in spring training who are trying to make the big league club. A good way to tell what chance a player has of making the club is if his number is above or below 50. Milledge chose 85 simply because he was  born in 1985. 

The number change has already brought some humor to the clubhouse. Manny Acta reportedly stuck a piece of white tap with "Ocho-Cinco 85" written in black marker on Milledge's locker, a reference to the Cincinnati Bengals receiver Chad Johnson. 

While Dunn didn't ask Milledge for the number, he was grateful his new teammate deferred to him. He didn't however agree with Milledge's choice for his new number.

"That number's so ugly,"  Dunn said. "I might just give this one back."

A few words from Kasten on Esmailyn Gonzalez

The good news is Stan Kasten is as surprised and upset as the rest of us, the bad news is this gives us no more answers. 

When asked whether or not people should call the once prized prospect shortstop Esmailyn Gonzalez or by his birth name Carlos Lugo, Kasten replied:

"I'm not exactly sure how to refer to him, so for  now I'll just call him 'the Player to Be Named Later."

And if you couldn't tell Kasten was upset, he went on to call the situation:

"An elaborate scheme."

"I'm angry. I'm very angry. We've been defrauded. And make no mistake: This wasn't a college kid with a fake ID. This was a deliberate, premeditated fraud, that involved bribes, along with falsified hospital and school records."

The disappointing culture of Major League Baseball

When I was young, I think there was nothing more exciting than going to a Baltimore Orioles game with my dad. I looked forward to baseball, I looked forward to going to the game and being part of the crowd, a part of the excitement, and most importantly a part of the tradition filled culture.

I was excited when Ken Griffey Jr. turned his hat backwards and when Nomar adjusted his gloves. I was excited when Larry Walker wrote 'I'm hitting .400' in the sand and when Joe carter jumped for joy. I looked forward to Cal Ripken breaking Lou Gehrig's consecutive game streak and watched in awe when he hit homers on back to back nights, when tying and breaking the record.

But somewhere along the lines that excitement I felt for the game has changed to an expectation of disappointment. Maybe I'm jaded, maybe it's just been a rough few years, but since Roger Maris's record fell in 1998 nothing good has come to the game. 

With the news breaking today of the Nats prized prospect being a phony and a liar, it only capped off what has been a stunningly disappointing week and a half of baseball. This season has yet to begin and already three scandals have hit the news wires. Former Oriole star Miguel Tejada may be going to jail, the hope of the game Alex Rodriguez is a cheat, and now one of the hopes of the Nationals is an apparition. 

It has come to the point where I just expect the worst from the best. I cringe at the thoughts of stars like Albert Pujols or David Wright being caught up in a scandal. I worry that inspirations like Josh Hamilton will be ruined by something, anything, that stands for the opposite of the hope they bring.

It doesn't help that the commissioner, the so called leader or figurehead of our game is a buffoon. The man seems to make the wrong decision on everything, and under his watch all of this has happened. Worse than Bud Selig making the wrong decision is when he refuses to make one at all. Too often do we see him say the words, 'well I'm not going to say that,' or 'it's something I'll have to think about.' The man who is supposed to guide the sport can't even decide what do think or say.

I hope that this is just the fallout of an era that was corrupt, and not a trend of the future. The game has been infused with money, and we know what that has historically done to all institutions. I pray that the game cleans up and I hope that one day I can look forward to opening the sports page, and not dread inevitable disappointment. 

First response about Esmailyngate on Nationals.com

MLB.com reporter Bill Ladson posted a story today on Esmailyngate, which gives us a little it of insight on how those around the shortstop are taking the report that Gonzalez is actually 23 years old.

Gonzalez's current agent, Stanley King, said early Wednesday morning he was shocked by the revelations. 

"I hope this is a mistake," King said via telephone. "I was at his house this winter and he answered by his [baseball name]. I will look into this."

Former Major League pitcher Jose Rijo who is now a special assistant to Jim Bowden, had a close relationship to Esmailyn Gonzalez and his 'handler' Basillio Vizcaino. Handlers in the Dominican take young players and pay to train and feed them in return for a percentage of their signing bonus when they get with a Major League organization. It was this relationship between Rijo, Vizcaino and Bowden that prompted an FBI investigation over several Nationals Dominican signings in 2008.

"I saw (Gonzalez) for 2 1/2 years (before he signed with the Nationals)," Rijo said, "In the Dominican, you never know anymore. It has been going on so long."

I have a feeling this whole thing may end up being bigger than just 'Gonzalez' lying about his age and name. If somehow there is proof that King, Rijo, or Bowden knew the truth prior to this story breaking, heads could roll. It's not often the Feds get involved in Major League Baseball, it will certainly be interesting to see where this goes. 

Great way to kick off camp- 'Gonzalez' is a phony

When Esmailyn Gonzalez first arrived to Washington Nationals camp at the age of 17, he earned the nickname 'Smiley,' because of his constantly pleasant demeanor. However, with the news breaking today it is clear that he wasn't smiling with joy for the game, but because he knew something we all didn't; 19-year-old Esmailyn Gonzalez is actually 23-year-old Carlos Alvarez Daniel Lugo.

SI.com reported late last night that the prized possession prospect for the Washington Nationals lied about his age en route to signing a record $1.4 million contract in 2006. The signing was a momentous occasion for the young franchise who used it's winning bid for the shortstop as proof of their "pledge to become an industry leader in scouting and player development." 

The news today of Gonzalez's false identity has put both his future with the organization as well as his future in the United States in jeopardy. It is unclear whether the shortstop will even be able to attain a visa to arrive to spring training, assuming the Nationals would even want him.

At 18 his numbers in the Gulf Coast League (.343/.431/,475) were very impressive. While 'Gonzalez,' had considerable tools they weren't yet put together, but his age made up for that. At the age of 23 however he is now considered very raw and the likelihood of his body developing further is very slim. 

The bottom line:

Esmailyn Gonzalez- possible future superstar

Carlos Alvarez Daniel Lugo- average minor league bum 

more to come...

Looking at the Non-Roster Invitees - Pitchers

Every year major league clubs invite between 25-35 players to spring training to give them a shot at making the Big League club. Some of these players have minor league contracts, and some are at camp with an all or bust mission of proving that they will be able to help on the clubs 40 man roster.

Here is a look at the pitchers the Nats invited to Viera this spring:

63 Bobby Brownlie-A former first round pick for the Chicago Cubs and standout at Rutgers, Brownlie (28) rose to the top of the Cubs system after going 14-12 with a 3.25 ERA in his first two years in professional ball. Brownlie however struggled in 2006 and never seemed to recover. He was released in 2007 and to this day is still trying to reach his first round potential as a major league starter/reliever. Here is scout.com's rendition of What's Easting Bobby Brownlie?

71 Gustavo Chacin- Chacin roared onto the scenes in 2005 for Toronto as one of the bette

r left handed starters in the American League. Armed with villainous sunglasses, Chacin combined a deadly curve and a low 90's fastball to keep hitters off balanced. Then, as quickly  as he came on to the scene in 2005, he vanished. Reconstructive arm surgery caused him to miss most of 2007 and all of 2008. Now he will try and make the leagues weakest rotation after not pitching in almost two years.

43 Jesus Colome- Colome is probably one of the closest to a lock to make the big league club of the players on this list. He has pitched in 122 games for the Nats over the last 2 years and has posted ERA's of 3.82 and 4.31 (a difference of only 6 earned runs). Colome gets a lot of strikeouts and throws very hard out of the pen. 

72 Justin Jones- Jones was drafted by the Cubs in the second round out of high school in 2002. The left-hander was on the right track his first two years in the minors, posting a 1.80 ERA in 2002 and a 2.28 ERA in A ball in 2003. His success led to him being named the 56th top prospect in baseball and the #2 prospect for the Chicago Cubs according to Baseball America. Double A just seemed to be too much, as he couldn't succeed at the next level. After being cut by the Cubs he has bounced around and has finally landed with the Nats. His chances of making the big league club are not high. 

68 Preston Larrison- Larrison has been a journeyman since being drafted by Detroit in 2001. He showed solid success at all levels but could not break onto the big league club. Elbow surgery in 2007 hurt his velocity and he was eventually released by both Detroit and Cleveland. 

75 Wilfredo Ledezma-  Ledezma is weird...In a spot start for Detroit in 2006, filling in for Justin Verlander, the lefty suffered a rough inning. Following the third out, Ledezma continued to walk into the dugout and literally...eat his own hat. Yes... literally...

60 J.D. Martin- Martin was a first round draft pick for the Cleveland Indians in 2001, and for a while was one of their top prospects. Martin was forced to get reconstructive surgery in 2003 and with it lost a great deal of his velocity. After a rocky 2008, the Indians finally let their once prized hurler go. Martin now comes to the Nationals with that same great curveball that made him a great prospect, but with velocity problems in his fastball.

45 Odalis Perez- Perez was one of the Nationals best starters last year for much of the season. He has been a consistent middle rotation starter for the last 10 seasons and if he ever shows up to camp, he will likely make the club. 

55 Jorge Sosa- Sosa signed with the Colorado Rockies organization as a free agent out of the Dominican in 1995. He's bounced around since, not making his debut until 2002 and not really producing at a quality level ever. There's a chance he'll find his way onto the big league club as a spot starter/reliever...just because of his durability. 

78 Josh Towers- Some of you may remember Towers breaking into the bigs as an Oriole back in 2001. He didn't throw hard, but he did something else no one did; he threw strikes. By getting ahead in the count, Towers kept hitters off balance and under his control. This gimmick didn't last long though, as he got battered for the next 4 years. Towers found a resurgence in Toronto in 2005 going 13-12 with a 3.71 ERA, but 2006 and 2007 were just as 2002-2004. 

35 Ryan Wagner- Drafted in the first round in 2003 by, you guessed it, THE Cincinnati Reds. He has a large amount of major league bullpen innings under his wing, but spent all of 2008 in the minors for the first time since breaking into the bigs in 2003. No one has ever questioned his arm, we'll see if he puts it together this spring.

76 Jordan Zimmerman- The Nats top prospect, Zimmerman had an off chance of making the back of the big league rotation out of spring training. A full year in AAA wouldn't hurt his development, so unless he is lights out expect the Nats to wait off at least a few months on bringing him up. 

They Said it - A look at Fangraphs

This is a great quote from Dave Cameron at Fangraphs.com:

"...and now Adam Dunn has joined the Washington Reds for $20 million over two years. This is a classic Jim Bowden move - acquire a former top prospect that he's already acquired previously, especially if he doesn't really have room for them on his roster. If Bowden were a general contractor, he'd build houses with nine bedrooms, six garages, no bathrooms, and half a roof. "

Frangraphs is a great stats site. It gives you every statistic you could ask for, and then some more. It doesn't stop at standard statistics, it goes into advanced, win probability, stats on batted balls, pitch type, plate discipline, fielding and overall value. 

The coolest part of Fangraphs is it gives you a read out of the top projections for that player from other sources, including the great Bill James. 

Click here to see the whole Adam Dunn fangraphs page.

Let the confusion begin

The Washington Post reported today that if Nick Johnson is healthy he will be the Washington Nationals first baseman for 2009. This means that newly signed slugger Adam Dunn will be moved to the outfield and in doing so cause one big mess.

This report comes in response to Nick Johnson saying that he refused to serve a back up role and would like to be traded if Dunn was supposed to play first base. To be fair to Johnson, this has been his team and when healthy he has produced very well. Behind Dunn, he is their second best hitter and the two of them in their line up at the same time would be much more potent.  

Prior to the Dunn signing the Nats had Lastings Milledge, Austin Kearns, Wily Mo Pena, Josh Willingham, Elijah Dukes, and Willie Harris all competing for three outfield spots. Now with Dunn in left; make that two outfield spots. 

This quite simply is a terrible misappropriation of talent. How do we have that many players vying for two outfield position yet absolutely no pitching? The clear move here for the Nationals should be to trade Nick Johnson. Aside from Kearns (who has 0 trade value), he is making almost as much as the other outfielders combined. His trade value is higher, as he gets on base and has a professional track record, and his contract is up at the end of this year. 

If he were traded we could receive possibly a solid relief pitcher, or a starter. We could shed his contract and have money to pick up one of the remaining free agents available...say Orlando Hudson. With Dunn in the infield we can give guys like Lastings Milledge and Elijah Dukes security in the outfield, instead of making them compete all year long. 

Let's be smart...for once?

Dunn Deal

Jim Bowden psychoanalysis aside, the Nats officially announced their deal with Adam Dunn today. The deal locks up the 29 year old slugger for two years for a combined $20 million. $8 million will be rewarded in 2009 and the rest in 2010.

On paper this is a great deal for the Nationals. Dunn initially was seeking a big long term contract as most 27-29 year old allstars do on the open market. Luckily for the Nationals, however, this market has just gotten worse and worse, and by playing the waiting game they signed him for less money and years than anyone would have ever have expected.

To put this deal in monetary prospective, Adam Dunn was making $13 million in 2008 and will be making $8 million in 2009. That is a 38% pay decrease after averaging 41.5 home runs and 100RBI  for the last four years. At the age of only 29 Dunn will produce close to the top power numbers in the league and get paid less than the money he signed in his first major league contract.

The Nats signed Dunn for $160 million less than they were willing to give Mark Teixiera. That's $160 million for 33 more times on base, seven less home runs, and 20 more RBI...and a little bit of defense. By not making the popular big splash signing the Nats picked up a player of close to equal value as Teixiera without threatening the integrity of the teams financial future. 

The Nats now have two years of a legitimate power threat in the middle of their line up. Two years of an all star at an average starters price. They have a name for two years to get them from A to B, from last to contention. Don't get me wrong, Dunn wont be the one to take them there, but he will help the team along as they develop.

Inserting Dunn into the line up will be great for the young Nationals hitters as well. Putting him behind Zimmerman and Milledge will allow the two to see much better pitches and will make them more selective. Dunn's ability to get on base will allow Elijah Dukes, who should hit behind him, to hit more often with runners on base, making him more effective. 

Defensively Dunn is probably slightly worse than Nick Johnson at first base. His great size however will make up for his lack of traditional range, and if the Nats can trade Johnson they can use that $5.5 million to sign a second basemen...Orlando Hudson anyone?

Nats get it DUNN

The Jim Bowden era continues.

In the early 2000's Reds fans reveled at the possibility of an outfield anchored by Ken Griffey Jr. (still available btw) with superstar prospects Wily Mo Pena, Austin Kearns, and Adam Dunn. Jim Bowden's situation was the envy of everyone in the league, and it looked as if the Reds would be at the top of baseball in the years to come.

Of course we know this isn't how things turned out. Griffey couldn't stay healthy while Kearns and Pena never lived up to their superstar potential. Eventually Bowden lost his job in Cincinnati after some insensitive remarks comparing the MLB Players association to al Qaeda(no wonder he can't get any players to sign) and the rest was history. 

A year later, however, Jim was working for the new Washington Nationals and was ready to get back what he had lost. Bowden must have had a need to get back what he felt had been wrongfully taken from him after an off the cuff remark. He had done everything right after all, he had built a team that should have been in a place to compete...it just didn't. 

It must be hard for a man who's job relies on the projected performance of others. You can make all the smart calls, the logical ones, and still end up being bit in the end by anything from a lazy third basemen to a freak kitchen injury. The bottom line was the scouting reports were wrong, the experts were wrong, and yes Jim was wrong.

Fast forward five years and the Washington Nationals are looking eerily like the Reds of 2003, especially with the signing of slugging outfielder Adam Dunn today. Is this professional? Is this not a ploy? Is this appropriate, logical, or even healthy? Am I the only one who has seen that this baseball man who has never been able to get the job done has simply taken this team hostage to fill some personal vendetta, some personal mission to prove that he was right in the first place putting these players together at the same time? 

Is it that simple? A man who can't admit his failures is using his current position of power to try and correct the mistakes of his past one? It certainly wouldn't be the first time this has happened in Washington, but Nationals fans deserve better.

It's time to let go Jim...

Players on the 2003 Reds that later ended up in the National Organization:

2B D'Angelo Jimenez

SS Felipe Lopez

3b Aaron Boone

OF Adam Dunn

OF Jose Guillen

OF Austin Kearns

OF Wily Mo Pena

Front office- Barry Larkin

Front office-Bob Boone

Scratch that...not a good week for infeilders

New York Daily News reported today that Roberto Alomar is being sued by his ex-girlfriend, Ilyla Dall for practicing unprotected sex while knowingly having Aids. 

This is a shocking allegation to say the least. Alomar's lawyer would not comment as to whether or not the former second basemen was HIV positive but according to the NYDN he said that the lawsuit was totally frivolous. He also said that the allegations were baseless but that Alomar would like to keep his health status private.

"In papers filed in state and federal court, Dall said Alomar finally got tested in January 2006 while suffering from a cough, fatigue and shingles.

"The test results of him being HIV-positive was given to him and the plaintiff on or about Feb.6, 2006," the $15 million negligence suit says.

Nine days later, the couple went to see a disease specialist who discovered a mass in the retired second baseman's chest, the court papers say.

Alomar's skin had turned purple, he was foaming at the mouth and a spinal tap "showed he had full-blown AIDS," the suit says."

The article goes on to describe the history between Dall and Alomar and includes Dalls accessions of Alomar's diminished health and positive HIV tests. It also goes on to say that Alomar confided in Dall about an incident when he had been raped by two gay men after a Mexican baseball game when he was 17.

A bad week for former all star shortstops

All-star shortstop Miguel Tejada was charged today with lying to congressional investigators about his use and knowledge of steroids. The 2002 MVP is expected to plead guilty tomorrow in court and faces up to a year in prison. 

It has been a rough year for the former Baltimore Oriole slugger. In the last 12 months he has been named in the Mitchell Report, traded to Houston, and had his true age revealed on national television. He posted by far his career worst season in Houston this year as well and as he faces possible jail time, his career may very well be over. 

It's sad to see a player like Tejada fall from grace so quickly. He was always one of the most charismatic and exciting players on and off the field. He looked like he had a true joy for playing the game and while he was a ferocious competitor, there was almost always a smile on his face.  

Alex Rodriguez Update

A few hours after I posted on Alex Rodriguez's name being leaked for testing positive in a 2003 steroid test, he did something very surprising, he confessed:

Summary: Rodriguez took responsibility and says that he did in fact use steroids from 2001-2003. He said that the pressure to live up to his contract and the atmosphere in Texas were the contributing factors to his decision to take steroids. He did however admit that it was his decision and no one else's. 

Analysis: Well...A-Rod probably realized that of all the stars who had been busted for steroids the only ones who have come out looking good are the ones who admitted to their use. The one thing people hate more than cheaters is liars. I think A-rod came out and told the truth in order to maintain his legacy and probably in the hopes that people will be willing to move on.

I think his hopes will probably be realized. He will most likely still be a Hall of Famer and considered one of the best in the game. The one thing that will likely be harmed however is his legacy as one of the best of all time. People can forgive a cheater, but they wont embrace him as one of their heros.

And can anyone really forgive the man that looked Katie Couric in the face and lied?

A-Fraud

Unless you've been under a rock this entire weekend, you know that Sports Illustrated reported that Alex Rodriguez tested positive for steroids in 2003. 

The positive test came from an anonymous survey that Major League Baseball distributed in order to determine if there was a need to test for performance enhancing drugs regularly. Reportedly 104 players tested positive in the survey.

 A-Rod testing positive for performance enhancing drugs is surprising but by no means shocking. I think most baseball fans assumed that the great slugger was clean based on his consistent performance and non-overwhelming size. When people thought about steroids they thought of superhero bodies and freakish growth. But the fact itself that the games biggest star and arguably one of the best players of all time was caught juicing at this point really shocked no one. We've become so jaded over the last decade as we have seen those we once labeled as hero's stripped down to the the worst title of all: cheater. 

But what does this mean for baseball, and where does it leave us? What are we supposed to expect/believe about the time period in baseball now known as the steroid era? Do we simply assume that everyone was juicing and therefor it was a level playing field? With the amount of stars positively linked to steroids at this point that may be a safe bet. 

But then what about the records? Sure it is simple enough to give these guys a pass into the Hall of Fame because they were playing against other roiders, but doesn't it punish the greats of the past?

Some would suggest we simply go on a witch hunt and find all the offenders we can. Potential Hall of Famer Curt Schilling even suggests that Major League Baseball renege on their confidentiality claims and list all 103 players who tested positive in 2003.

While I don't have the answers to these hypotheticals, the whole problem did get me thinking about how many sure fire stars there were left from the steroid era that hadn't been linked to the juice. So here is my starting Roider and Non Roider line up for the steroid era.

Rules: I'm defining the steroid era as 1995-2004. Players who have either tested positive, or have otherwise been all but proven to have taken steroids are considered Roiders. Those with no substantial steroid rumors are Non Roiders.

Roiders

C- Ivan Rodriguez (Juiced)

1B-Rafael Palmeiro (Tested Positive)

2B-Chuck Knoblauch (Mitchell Report)

SS-Alex Rodriguez (Tested Positive)

3B-Ken Caminiti (Admitted)

OF-Jose Canseco (Admitted)

OF-Barry Bonds (too many to list)

OF-Gary Sheffield (Admitted)

DH Mark McGwire (Brother, Juiced, Inability to deny allegations)

SP Roger Clemens (Mitchell Report)

RP Eric Gagne (Mitchell Report)

Bench: Jason Giambi (Admitted), Mo Vaughn (Mitchell Report), Nook Logan (overwhelmingly large guns)

Note: Sammy Sosa did not have enough on him to put him on either list. 

Non-Roiders

C-Mike Piazza

1B-Albert Pujols

2B-Roberto Alomar/Jeff Kent

SS-Derek Jeter

3B-Chipper Jones

OF-Ken Griffey Jr.

OF-Vlad Guerrero

OF-Rickey Henderson

DH-Manny Ramirez

SP-Pedro Martinez

RP-Mariano Rivera 

Bench: Cal Ripken (Tail end of career), Wade Boggs (Ditto) Nomar Garciaparra

Who makes your list?

Odalis is back

The Nationals and Odalis Perez agreed to a minor league contract yesterday, which will give the journeyman left hander a fair shot at making the rotation in 2009.

Perez signed a similar deal with the club in 2008, eventually leading to him being the oppening day starter. At times last year, Perez was the best pitcher in the rotation for the Nats. He went 7-12 with a 4.34 ERA in 30 starts. In the first half of the season he posted a 3.71 ERA and even with a 2-7 record had many calling for him to be the Nats representative at the All-Star game.

This is a good signing for the club. The rotations situation is dire, and the addition of Perez at worst will provide them with a left handed innings eater. He has had at least 20 starts each year since 2001, and while those years ranged from very successful to downright awful, he has been able to get the pitching staff from one day to the next.

What to do with Jordan Zimmerman

Ronald Burris might not be the only trailblazer coming to Washington in 2009.

Jordan Zimmerman has scorched through the minors at an unexpected rate and will have the opportunity to earn a spot in the Major League rotation this spring. We've seen this happen many times before in baseball; a young pitcher breaking into the bigs at a very young age and far ahead of schedule. Sometimes its positive (Roger Clemens, Josh Beckett) sometimes it's negative (Edwin Jackson and Bobby Witt), and sometimes they just burn out (Dwight Gooden, Dontrell Willis). 

But the proverbial question stands, should Zimmerman be brought up to the bigs in 09 if her earns it in camp, or should he be forced to spend more time in the minors developing?

There is a lot to be said for rewarding the kid if he comes out and has a great showing in spring training. If he can succeed in the spring against top talent, why wouldn't he be able to in May, June and August?

I urge the Nats to realize however that pitcher development is such a long process. The minors allow pitchers a place to learn under fire. It allows them develop skill during in game situations where in the majors they would just be relieved at the first sign of trouble. Don't we want our young pitchers to work through their problems? Not avoid them?

It's been said by many scouts that Zimmerman right now has very good stuff, but no great go to pitches. It seems to me that you can get minor league hitters out at a high rate without a go to pitch, but in order for a pitcher to be truly successful at the big league level he will need to have sharpened his pitches just that much more. A year more in the minors wont hurt anyone, certainly not Zimmerman.

But what do YOU think??

Bud Selig makes a mockery of the sport...and a lot of money

ESPN.com reported that Bud Selig 'earned' a salary of $17.5 million in 2007. 

Why?

Since the former used car salesman has taken over as commissioner of Major League Baseball he has done nothing but make a collection of bad or late decisions that have caused the sport we love to spiral downward out of control. Yet the owners of MLB's clubs stand behind their man bumbling interview after bumbling interview, and to the tune of 18.35 M in total compensation.

David Stern in his tenure has taken the NBA from an afterthought sport to the most iconic in our country. No other sport has the stars that the NBA hosts. No sport has the recognizable personalities or faces, you see NBA jersey's on the backs of fans everywhere and to this day we all still want to be like Mike. Remember the lockout? No? Remember that the games biggest star was brought up on rape charges? No, you don't, when you think of the NBA you think of Donald Sterns class operation, the NBA that 'cares.'

Roger Goodell has only been with the NFL for several years but even he has earned a reputation for laying down the law and improving the sport. He had no 

remorse in indeffinately suspending Pacman Jones or fining possibly the greatest coach of all time half a million dollars. The NFL today is America's sport. Sunday during football season is considered a holiday for many and the sports championship is the biggest television event of the year.

Lets take a look at Bud Selig's accomplishments:

In 1994 the Major League Players Association went on strike and the end of the 1994 season was cancelled including the playoffs. While the strike was as much the players fault as was the owners, the Commissioner could not keep his sport together, ruining what could have been a .400 season for Tony Gwynn and the best season the Montreal Expo's ever had. 

He allowed the steroid scandal to brew for years before it was finally exposed (not by him but by federal investigators) and then denied any responsibility. In doing so he lost any of the fans he had managed to draw back after the strike, and as a result baseball players are a joke in the media and the sports community as suspected cheaters.

In 2002 the All-Star game ended in a tie after the American and National Leagues were dead locked after 11 innings. Confusing and embarrassing to some, but logical to most, Selig felt the need for the first time in his reign to take action. Instead of explaining to the media in a press conference that would be forgotten in six months, that in an exhibition game these things happen and in order to protect the players he did what any manager would have wanted him to do, he inserted his foot in his mouth. He just brought more, and perpetual attention to the incident by creating a rule more useless and dumb than any other in sports. 

In 2001 Bud Selig decided to take over and purchase the Montreal Expos for 120 million dollars. For two years the team was run by Major League baseball as Bud decided what he wanted to do with this orphan team. Everyone knew the team was going to go to Washington, it had been the obvious choice for a team for years. Selig for some inexplicable reason couldn't pull the trigger. Instead of playing their games in Washington, the team played a quarter of their home games in impoverished Puerto Rico and with no owner or leadership watched as all the talent that was packed into its roster slipped away. 

In 2007 Barry Bonds was approaching the most hallowed record in baseball, Aarons 755 mark. Everyone knew he had been roiding; the feds, the fans, the writers. The outrage wasn't as much at Bonds for cheating, but at Selig and baseball for letting it happen. For weeks Selig bumbled like an idiot figuring out whether or not he would go to the game. He couldn't make a simple decision on whether or not to embrace or reject the accomplishment. The only thing that could make the sport look like it had less leadership than Bonds breaking the record, was Selig looking like a moron.

Despite all of this Selig makes a whopping 18 total million dollars a year. Almost double the 10 million that Goodell and Stern make. 

It's time that fans across the board demand a new commissioner. With a record like that he is only hurting the integrity of the game and the quality presented to the fans. The owners will keep him forever because he makes them money, so it is in the fans hands to demand that their owners make a change.

It's about time for one. 

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