Thursday, March 26, 2009

Temporary lack of updates

We apologize for the lack of updates, The Nats Blog is currently in the midst of a major upgrade. 


After one year of running the blog and watching it grow, we were approached by several websites about joining various sports blogging networks. After much research we decided to go a different way and inquire with a site that hadn’t contacted us, Bloguin.com. Bloguin offers the best opportunities in web traffic, revenue, and design, which translates to you as the best The Nats Blog possible. It’s our belief that this transition will not only allow The Nats Blog to provide the best content and interaction possibilities, but it will also broaden our community and readership.

The Forum

One of the benefits to the new blogging platform we are using is it provides us with the ability to have a forum. Hopefully for us it means that readers will get more involved in the blog, and hopefully for you it means that you can have a well read platform to express your own feelings, views, or hopes for the Nationals.  I have always felt that the most useful role of sports blogs is to be a community tool for the fans. Too often mainstream media calls the shots on public policy, fashion, and the popularity of various forms of entertainment. Sports is the one arena we can take control as simple fans however, because through powerful sports blogs the fans voices become powerful.

As Metsblog.com used to refer to their readers as, “one million general managers,” I hope that The Nats Blog community can grow to be something similar.

Other Upgrades

The Bloguin platform allows for a lot more flexibility in how The Nats Blog bring information to you, and how you can become a bigger part of The Nats Blog itself. Soon when we get more settled, you will see different modules and other various ways to interact on the blog. I hope you explore all the possibilities.

Soon The Nats Blog will also be adding some other writers to the Staff. If you are interested, or would just like to send in a fan article here and there, shoot us an email at TheNatsBlog.com@gmail.com

Monday, March 23, 2009

Shawn Hill is back on the market

Less than a week after the Nationals released the oft-injured starting pitcher, Shawn Hill is already in negotiations with at least two teams in an attempt to get back on a 40 man roster. 


According to the New York Daily News, the 27 year old starter is talking with the division rival New York Mets about possibly becoming a depth pitcher for the club. This means our former presumptive ace would start out in their Triple-A system and if healthy, and effective, would work his way up to the big league staff. 

This in effect would be an excellent move for New York who's back end of the rotation is in dire need of help. When The Nats Blog went down to spring training we saw a
 myriad of starting pitchers paraded about by the Mets, all vying for the last few spots. Possible candidates include former all-star Freddy Garcia, American import form Japan-Brandon Knight, and yes 
Livan likes-his-money Hernandez (he makes a lot they say). The signing of Hill would give them a potential above average, young starting pitcher who can help them in the second half of the season. The only catch is Hill needs to be healthy. While this was a risk that was too big for the Nationals to rest their season hopes on, it would really be a no lose, all gain situation for the orange and blue.

Hill is also reportedly talking with the Toronto Blue Jays about a possible spot on the teams starting rotation. This would be a much more attractive position for Hill as he is a native Canadian (Eh!?) and he would get a chance to prove he still can be an effective starter in the majors. 

Friday, March 20, 2009

Nats sign Joe Beimel

Nats signed Joe Beimel earlier this week to bolster up their bullpen. Manager Manny Acta immediately named him their set-up man in front of Joel Hanrahan, providing the Nationals with a solid one-two punch for late in games.


Last year for the Dodgers Beimel pitched 71 games posting a 2.02 ERA in 49 innings.

Wednesday, March 18, 2009

Shawn Hill released

The Nationals released former ace Shawn Hill today, saying that they wanted to give him an opportunity with other organizations.

Washington Post Nationals Journal:

"Manager Manny Acta called Hill's release "probably the toughest decision I've had to make since I've been here."

Hill, 27, had spent the previous three years in constant comeback mode, trying to recover from, at varying points, a shoulder injury, elbow problems, and forearm tightness. Through all of it, the Nationals stuck with the right-handed sinkerballer, drafted in 2000, back when the organization was in Montreal. Always, the Nationals spoke of Hill's potential, his ability -- if healthy -- to anchor a rotation. Assistant General Manager Mike Rizzo grew tired of waiting, even though Hill, in an exhibition start on Monday, threw one scoreless inning and looked healthy."

It's pretty bad if you are so unhealthy that the Nationals wont even consider you for their rotation anymore. Hill had been constantly hurt and with his injuries, constantly disappointing. Perhaps it is a good thing for the clubs moral to no longer be forever waiting for Hill's health to catch up to his abilities and potential. Look at the effect Ben Sheets injurires has had on the Brewers. Whenever he was healthy they played well all around, whenever he was hurt the team became dejected and fell apart. Even with Sabathia this last year they struggled after Sheets got hurt.

From the Times..

Jay-Z's spring domination

Jordan Zimmermann, or as some are now calling him 'Jay-Z,' has certainly been the toast of the Nationals spring training camp. He was welcomed into Viera with open arms and hearts as he was named by both Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus as the teams best prospect and ace of the future. Since then he has showed that he may not just be the future, but the present.


Initial projections had Zimmermann pitching the first half of the year in AAA to tune up and make sure he was ready for the jump to Washington. But as he has seemed to do his entire young career, Zimmermann disagreed. The young righty has instead been absolutely dominant, pitching 12 innings without allowing an earned run.

At this point it is hard to imagine Zimmermann not earning the number four or five spot in the Nats rotation to begin 2009. Experts had him as a mid-season call up on March 1st, but less than a month later some are considering him a serious Rookie of the Year candidate. There is always reason to be speculative of spring training performance, but if you can put any stock in them, Zimmermann is arguably the best pitcher in Florida right now.

Where Zimmerman Stands On The Spring League Leaderboard:

-Tied for the lead with Micah Owings with 16 K's, has pitched two less innings and has allowed two less hits than Owings

-Has pitched the most scoreless innings in baseball, 12.1

-Among pitchers with 12 or more innings pitched, he has the second lowest WHIP with 0.65

-Among pitchers with 12 or more innings pitched, he has the lowest opponent OBP with .178

-Among pitchers with 12 or more innings pitched, he has the highest K/9 ratio with 11.68

-Among pitchers with 12 or more innings pitched, he has the lowest H/9 ratio with 4.38

Scouts have never been overwhelmingly high on Zimmermann. In fact my first impression upon seeing our ace of the future was not exactly positive. He looks small on the mound with a supposive 6'1" frame, and his delivery looks more like a middle reliever than a dominant starter. Using the eye test alone, it's no surprise that it is hard for scouts to get high on him. 

Keep in mind, thats the same eye test that has given Daniel Cabrerra a career.

Zimmermann's numbers however can't be disputed by any scout. His entire rise through the minors has been filled by surprise performance after surprise performance. Look for Zimmermann to have his struggles, but expect him to have a solid and full rookie year.

Tuesday, March 17, 2009

This is our leadoff hitter?

Earlier this spring we looked at who was the best option for the Nationals to bat in the leadoff spot. After much analysis, looking at all possibilities including Lastings Milledge and even Adam Dunn, we reluctantly decided that Cristian Guzman was the guy for the job. 

Guzman historically had been the type of player to swing freely, and while this hack-attack mentality results in a lot of hits and a decent average, it doesn't really translate well to the leadoff role. Leadoff hitters need to be selective in their approach. The more pitches they see in an opening at bat shows the rest of the line up what a pitcher is bringing on a given day. Most importantly, a leadoff hitter must be able to get on base. While one way of doing this is obviously getting hits, even the best hitters in baseball can only get a hit 33% of the time. The most efficient way any ball player can get on base is by using the threat of drawing the walk to his ability. The best players in the league can get on base above 40% of the time, but all of them use the power of the walk.

This is a problem. Because through 10 games and 31 at bats this spring, Guzman has walked a grand total of 0 times. 

I'll repeat that, Cristian Guzman has 0 walks this spring. The player who's job it is to get on base better than just about anyone on the team is doing the worst job thus far. Now some may argue its a small sample size, that it's only spring training and he may just be trying to get his hacks in. But isn't this the time that a traditional hack-attack guy should be working on his new patient approach?

We were sold the idea of a new Cristian Guzman. One that had laser eye surgery, one that would walk at a higher rate, and one that would play the field like he actually looked like he wanted to be there. Let's hope that this poor spring showing is just an apparition and that Guzman will be the Guzman we saw in 2008.

Well...at least he's honest


A quote sent in from Washington Post writer Matthew Brooks on Julian Taverez's decision to sign with the Nationals:

“Why did I sign with the Nationals?” Tavarez said on Sunday. “When you go to a club at 4 in the morning, and you’re just waiting, waiting, a 600-pounder looks like J. Lo. And to me this is Jennifer Lopez right here. It’s 4 in the morning. Too much to drink. So, Nationals: Jennifer Lopez to me.”

Monday, March 16, 2009

Pitching roundup


Jordan Zimmermann
 When camp started we said Jordan Zimmermann would have to be just about perfect in order to make the rotation. The young prospect has exceeded expectations and risen up the ranks faster than anyone has expected, unfortunately such a rise usually translates into a rushed result which can take several years to fix. Zimmermann however just keeps getting better and succeeding, no matter where he is. He has been one of the top pitchers in Florida this spring among any team and is being thrown around in the National League Rookie of the Year talks. Right now it seems very hard for the Nats to keep him out of the rotation come April.

Spring Stats: 12 IP, 0 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 16K

Collin Balester

Many expected Balester to take the 4th of 5th starting spot for Washington this season, especially over the younger Jordan Zimmermann. Balester has been a strong prospect in the Nats system for some time now, and after a good introduction to the majors last year many expected him to take the next step. Balester is struggling however, and may not find his way onto the opening day roster the way he is throwing this March.

Spring Stats: 11 IP, 8 ER, 11 H, 6 BB, 6K

Daniel Cabrerra

Cabrerra has been his good old shakey-self. After the talented arm came over from Baltimore, the Nats coaching staff figured they'd turn him into something actually more than just an arm by the end of March. Unfortunately for Cabrerra, and Nats fans, it appears its just the same old song; buckets of talent and not any idea how to turn it into success. So far Cabrerra has been all over in spring training, but the consistent thing has been his lack of control and his high amount of hits given up. He will make the rotation purely due to the amount he's getting paid, but whether he will succeed is up in the air.

Spring Stats: 7.2 IP, 4 ER, 12 H, 3 BB, 4K

Most Hated Players in the NBA


As I have mentiond on here before, The Nats Blog will soon be joining the Bloguin network, a group of great sports and video game blogs coming together to bring the best content available to sports fans. 

Anyways, The Nats Blog helped contribute to this great article for the Blazers Blog, Bust a' Bucket, listing the NBA's top 10 most hated players. The good news is, no Wizards made the list, probably because people forgot Gilbert Arenas was even in the league. The bad news is our number one choice, Lebron, didn't make the list either.

Saturday, March 14, 2009

Friday, March 13, 2009

The Chief heads to Washington...Seattle, Washington

The former Chief and closer for the Washington Nationals signed a minor league deal with the Seattle Mariners today. Despite having not pitched in 10 months, the Mariners believe that Cordero will be able to build his arm back to what it was several years ago and fill the role as their everyday closer.


The 27 year-old Cordero last pitched for Washington in late April of last year. At the time he was trying to battle back from an arm injury which had bothered him the year before, however the closer had lost significant velocity on his already notoriously slow fastball. After one outing when Cordero struggled to top 82 MPH on the radar-gun, Kasten and Bowden decided it was time to put him on the DL to rehabilitate his arm. He never made it back to the mound for the Nationals.

During his tenure for the Nationals/Expos Cordero saved 128 games in 142 chances from 2003-2007. His weaker fastball was made up for by his outstanding change up and solid curve. In 2005 he electrified D.C during the teams improbable run to first place as he set the pace for the club with his up tempo personality, flat brimmed cap, and led the Major Leagues with 47 saves. 

Reports have Cordero's fastball still down 7-10 mph off of what it once was, but he says that he hopes to bring it back to the 89-90 MPH range. Cordero says he is currently at about 75-80 percent and should be able to assume the role of the Mariners closer by early June.

Nationals sign Julian Tavarez

The Nats signed veteran righty Julian Tavarez today to compete for both a spot in the bullpen and a possible job as a spot starter. The signing fills an important hole on the Nationals roster...pitching...everywhere. Hopefully for the Nats, Tavarez's versatility will help their extremely poor pitching staff by being able to fill in wherever needed. 

While he is no longer the pitcher he once was, Tavarez has been both an effective starter and reliever in his 15 year career.  Many fans will remember him being an important part of the Redsox bullpen in 2006.

Thursday, March 12, 2009

The Nats Blog-Back from Florida

In our last game of the trip we saw the Nats take on the Mets yet again. There was a special treat in store however, as we were lucky enough to see the Nats number one prospect, Jordan Zimmermann, get the start on the mound. 

Zimmermann has been highly touted by both Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus. The young righty combines a sharp moving fastball with a solid change and curve, all of which he can locate well. We were able to sit right behind home plate, in about the fifth or sixth row to see him pitch for the first time in person. A few things surprised me.

On the mound Zimmermann looked surprisingly short. He is listed at 6 foot 2 but to the naked eye it looked as if that number may have been falsified. His delivery and mechanics looked smooth both from the windup and the stretch. He had little to no wasted movement and while his frame was not intimidating, his confidence on the mound seemed to be.

Zimmermann's fastball showed consistent speed but not overwhelming pop. It sat in the 93-94 range and not a single Mets batter got solid contact on it(although to be fair, the only Major League bats in the line up were Ryan Church and Marlon Anderson who both had hits off Zimmermann). His curveball seemed to fool hitters enough to make them hesitate but not enough to make them miss. Three of his four strikeouts came on freezing fastballs well located on the corners.

In this outing, against what was probably the worst line up he saw all spring, Zimmermann gave up his first base runners, six of them in three and a third innings. While he pitched himself into jams early in innings, the young righty was able to work his way out of all of them to lengthen his scoreless innings streak to 8 1/3rd this spring. The fact that such a young pitcher didn't lose his cool in high pressure situations such as those is impressive. Zimmermann was able to bare down and get the out when he needed. 

Detwiler vs. Zimmermann

After getting a chance to see both of these young prospects pitch, the whole picture is starting to become clearer. When you read in Baseball Prospectus and Baseball America that Detwiler has better stuff than Zimmermann you don't really believe it until you see it. While Detwiler was getting shelled this spring you could see how he has the potential to be an ace pitcher if he ever puts it together. He has the size (6'5")  Zimmermann doesn't, more power to his fastball, and his curve seemed to have better movement.

But then again this is just a microcosm of the great baseball debate, performance based evaluation or physical potential based? If you compare the numbers:

Zimmermann 8.3 IP, 0ER, 4H, 10K, 2 BB
Detwiler: 3 IP, 5 ER, 6H, 0K, 7 BB

It's no contest. The good news for the Nats however is that if they both can make the transition to the majors, they could provide a powerful one-two-three punch atop the rotation with John Lannan by 2011. 

Monday, March 9, 2009

The Nats Blog in Florida, Day 2

The Nats game wasn't until 7 today, so we made the hike down to Port St. Lucie to watch the Mets take on the Orioles at Tradition Field. Tradition field is alive with just that. Draped in orange and blue the Mets fans come out in droves, the stadium comes alive with a charisma that only a historic franchise can infuse. It is a beautiful example of what a baseball community should be and hopefully what young Viera can grow into. 


Our seats were in the last row behind home plate, which in spring training translates to about the 25th row. Behind us was the owners box, and to our surprise there sat not only Mets owner Fred Wilpon and general manager Omar Minaya, but also their guests Dolphins head coach Tony Sporano and  Dophins executive and legendary football head coach Bill Parcells. 
While the celebrities enjoyed one another, we enjoyed what turned 
out to be an excellent game. 

The Orioles jumped out to an early lead as Mets starter Brandon Knight could not get anything but loud outs. Knight is attempting an MLB comeback after a few stints pitching in Japan, but unfortunately for this journeyman it looks like that may be the only place he belongs. An eventual homer by Ty Wiggington put the Orioles up big and it seemed like the game was in hand as the O's turned 
the game over to their reserves. 

Up four in the eighth, the O's gave up a grand slam to a selective Nick Evans to tie the game up. The Mets retired the top of  the 9th in order, and following an incredibly bad at-bat by the aforementioned Wilmer Flores, Rene Rivera surprised the entire stadium by crushing game winning home run to center.

Nationals vs. Astros (written by Papa Yoder and Uncle Kit)
Anderson Hernandez started tonight in the leadoff spot. Are the Nats serious? Hernandez had a .268 on-base percentage in over 500 plate appearences in AAA last year, and the Nats are expecting him to be a leadoff hitter? They are letting his couple of hot weeks at the end of last year cloud their judgement. The real question is, who will they turn to after they give up on Andy?

Austin Kearns showed that there is still life in a moribund bat that has been left for dead by some fans by blasting a long shot out of the park in left-center. Kearns homer capped what was a great offensive outburst at the start of the game which gave the Nats an early big lead. 

This big lead allowed us to see some young guns that we otherwise might not be able to. The Nats brought in some of their backup infielders such as journeyman Joel Guzman. It appears Guzman may be playing himself out of whatever prospect status he has left. The former shortstop, who now plays a sluggish first base, couldn't handle a one hopper that would have completed a nice play in the hole by Ian Desmond, the Bats current best prospect at shortstop. Guzman also looked overmatched at the plate, despite some questionable Astros pitching.

While the Astros slowly chipped at what was once a big lead, Manny Acta decided to put in the Nats first overall selection in the Rule-5 Draft, reliever Terrell Young. Young, fighting for a position in the bullpen as a possible set up man, came in throwing hard but nowhere near the zone. He finally settled but not before allowing the tying run in the top of the eighth. Two innings later, well into free baseball, the Nats won the game with a walk off homer by Mr. Nobody Brad Eldred.

It was a day for obscure heroes. After watching the Mets come from four runs down in the eighth inning to beat the Orioles in a game apped by the walk off homer hit by Rene Rivera (who has been bouncing between AA and AAA since 2004), we watched our second walk off homer of the day with Eldred.

Brad Eldred? Who is Brad Eldred?

Brad Eldred is a non-roster invitee to Nats camp, who hit 35 homers with 100 RBI in the International League last year. The Nats signed the 6'5" right-handed hitter as a minor league free agent in December. Unfortunately Eldred is 29 years old and has been stuck at AAA since 2004. Twenty-eight year olds like Eldred, who strike out five times as often as they walk in AAA are not prospects. Worst of all, Eldred is primarily a first baseman who occasionally takes his glove to the outfield. Thats right- the Nats have still another power-hitting firstbaseman/outfielder with problems making contact. Eldred's walk off homer will be a moment to remember - even in spring training, but if the Nats end up giving many regular season plate appearances to Eldred, you will know that something has gone terribly wrong with their season. 

On an aside we got to see Northern Virginia native and former high school baseball opponent of mine, Brandon Snyder, take batting practice with the Orioles. Snyder was the Orioles first overall pick in 2005 but has had trouble staying healthy/finding a position. 

Sunday, March 8, 2009

The Nats Blog in Florida, Day 1

Well the video isn't going to work; software problems. My apologies, you'll get to see some good video highlights when we get back.

We left D.C at 9 A.M and walked through the gates of Space Coast Stadium just in time to see the first pitch of the 1 o'clock game. On a beautiful Sunday afternoon, with the division rival New York Mets in town, little Viera, Florida was alive with baseball. Cars lined up for up to two miles outside the stadium up until game time and in all of my experience in spring training, I have never seen a game that packed. 

We walked in as John Lannan threw the first pitch. We were lucky, the Nationals had their entire starting line up in the game (sans Adam Dunn and Jesus Flores). Johnson, Belliard, Guzman, Zimmerman, Dukes, Milledge, and Kearns all got the start and all played 4-6 innings. It was ironic to see all the Nats starters in the game, for one because that never happens in spring training, and secondly because almost every single Met that started last year is playing for some nation in the World Baseball Classic. 

What we saw:

Lannan looked like his old sharp self. He allowed no earned runs in two innings, and looked to over power the inexperienced  Mets line up. His fast ball looks like it may have gained a mile or two per hour and his change and curve looked to be locating well.

As Jose Reyes is playing for the Dominican Republic in the World Baseball classic, the Mets have a gigantic whole at shortstop during spring training. For today, at least, they filled that hole with 17 year old super-prospect Wilmer Flores. The young shortstop, who projects to be a corner outfielder when its all said and done looked incredibly overmatched  playing against major league players. At 17, that of course isn't surprising. However it certainly was interesting to see such a raw player exposed like that. It's truly a rare occurrence to see these super-prospects play in person because of how sheltered they are and because they often don't get many at bats against the leaguers (Flores played
 the entire game). 
Baseball Prospectus projects Flores to be a Miguel Cabrera type player when he fills out. However after seeing him today it is easy to say that he is a good 3 or 4 years away from making any impact in a Mets uniform. 

Saturday, March 7, 2009

The Nats Blog heads to Florida

Pappa Yoder and I have our bags packed and are set to fly down to Vierra, Florida this weekend to spend three days in what may be baseball's purest state, spring training. This isn't our first trip down south to see our favorite ball players train, in fact it has been an annual pilgrimage for us. Up until this trip however, I have only been roaming the fields of Florida as a fan, but now for the first time I will be down there as a reporter to bring all you Nats Fans to the action.

The Nats Blog In Florida

While down south we'll be bringing our readers several different things. First if you look to your right, we've added Twitter to the right side panel. This means that we will be able to update from our cell phones on everything that is going on in camp and in games. So if you can't watch the game or listen to it, at least you can read our 140 character or less rants about it.


Also make sure to check in for nightly video blogs!

Friday, March 6, 2009

Old habits tend to die hard



Last season the Nats entered the 2008 campaign assuming Shawn Hill would be their ace in the hole. There was one problem, forearm pain. Every time he would pitch, there it would be, forearm pain. Not elbow tendentious, not a torn rotator cuff...just forearm pain.

He said he could pitch through it last year, but a 1-5 record with a 5.83 ERA disagreed; and so did Manny Acta. Hill tried to return to the mound several times in 2008 but just couldn't get past that nagging injury. Finally the Nats decided to shut him down, and give him a long time to rest and heal-up.

Now, no less than two innings into the 2009 training camp, forearm pain.

Stick a fork in him Nats fans, he's done.

Jordan Zimmerman

JZIM on the other hand has another habit he can't seem to kill; impressing people by overachieving. No one expected this 23 year old stud to dominate single and double A last season en route to being named the Nationals top prospect by just about every publication.

He's doing it again.

So far this spring the young pitcher has been absolutely perfect. Coming into camp, many, including The Nats Blog, suggested that he pitch at least half a season down in triple A to ensure he gets good seasoning and wasn't rushed. You can't ignore numbers like this however. Numbers like this give an unknown third basemen like Albert Pujols a job for an injured Fernando Tatis, or a troubled Josh Hamilton a shot at making the Cincinnati Reds. Yeah, it's early as hell...but look what he's done so far:

Jordan Zimmerman, SP
2 G, 5IP, 0H, 0R 0BB, 6K

Thursday, March 5, 2009

I know he's a Philly, but this is funny

Who to bat where, challenging conventional thought -Batting Second

As this is our second segment in this series, I suggest you read the first segment on who the Nats should leadoff, to catch up. 


But if you're lazy here's the summary: While Cristian Guzman is by no means a typical leadoff hitter, the combination of his growing maturity, laser eye surgery, and lack of Nationals options make him the best candidate to leadoff in 2009. Other options discussed were Lastings Milledge for his athleticism, Anderson Hernandez for his late season success last year, and Adam Dunn for his surprising speed and ability to get on base. 

But now the question arises of who Manny Acta should, not will, bat behind Guzman at the leadoff spot. The number two hitter has several important responsibilities, and many believe he can be the most crucial in putting runs on the board. We have to look no further than to see what Derek Jeter has done for the Yankees throughout the years, or the stunning effect Dustin Pedroia had for the Redsox offense last year. 

Most importantly the number two hitter needs to be able to put the bat on the ball. If the leadoff hitter gets on base, it's the number two hitters job to get him to second or third so that the three and four hitter can do damage. In the past this meant the second hitter had to be ready to bunt, but in todays game it means that he has to handle hit and runs, hit to the opposite side of the field, and run the bases just as well as anyone on the team.

So who fits that role on the Washington Nationals?

Lastings Milledge
Milledge has the potential to bat just about anywhere in the line up. He combines power with speed, the ability to hit for average without sacrificing power or patience. He has good bat control for such a young player and his strikeout rate went down as the season progressed. According to conventional thought this is the best place for Milledge because he will be hitting in front of Zimmerman, Dunn, and Dukes. Their power will be an asset to him seeing good pitches to hit, and his speed will be an asset for them to hit him in.

Last year Milledge batted second in 17 games. He put up a line of .269/.320/.388. While those numbers aren't very impressive we have to remember he was often batting in that spot when the team was having its worst batting struggles. Zimmerman was hurt, Kearns and Pena couldn't bat above .200, and Dukes forgot how to swing a bat. While it's troubling that he hasn't had much tangible success at this spot... athletically and in terms of tools, he may be the best option for the Nats. 

Elijah Dukes
Elijah Dukes truly is a puzzle. It's not clear what type of player he will develop to be exactly. At six foot one 240 pounds he has the frame of a power hitter. But his fluidity and                             
speed would have you think that he has future as a center fielder who will hit for a high average. The Nats would probably prefer that he develop more into a power hitting corner outfielder, but they will take anything they can get from a guy who was basically discarded by Tampa Bay.

Dukes saw plenty of action batting in the second spot for the Nationals in 2008. In 23 games he put up a line of .319/.413/.500. He hit three homers, 14 RBI, and five stolen bases. To put it simply, he excelled. Putting numbers like that up for an entire season would make Dukes an all star at any position. While Dukes may be more prone to strikeouts than Milledge, he makes up for it with his higher average and on base percentage. Statistically Dukes is the best option for the two spot...but the Nationals may want to bat him further back in the order to develop his power.

Ryan Zimmerman
Zimmerman has been long crowned our teams franchise hitter and has been bolstered in the number three spot in the line up for the last three years. But is he a true number three hitter? Sure his numbers have been deflated by lack of solid protection in the line up, but will he actually translate to a number three hitter on a championship team?
At the three spot in his career he has put up a line of .278/.339/.457. He has averaged 22 homers and 92 RBI per 162 games, which is very solid. But a number three hitter has to be the most pure  hitter on the team. While .278 with 20 homers and close to 100 RBI's is great, its hardly anything from pure. The Nats might be better off if they decide to move Zimmerman to the two slot where he can be a little bit more liberal about the pitches he swings at.

Conclusion 
The Nats have much better options to bat in the second spot than they do the leadoff. All three options of Milledge, Dukes, and Zimmerman would be sought after by any team. While Milledge may project to be a better number two hitter down the road, I think the Nats best option is Elijah Dukes. Numbers don't lie and Dukes number two slot stats are excellent. If he develops into a power hitter that outgrows the two spot, so be it...but in 2009 the Nats should bat Dukes number 2. 

Wednesday, March 4, 2009

Mike Rizzo to take over baseball opperations

It was announced today that Mike Rizzo will take control of the day-to-day operations of the Washington Nationals after the resignation of Jim Bowden. While Stan Kasten had announced earlier that he would be in charge until a replacement general manager could be found, he took a step back today by putting Rizzo in the lead spot as interim GM.


Kasten assured that he will maintain final say on all baseball decisions.

"We've had enough instability in the last couple of weeks. I like stability. I don't like interim titles, by nature, because they suggest instability. So I'd rather just keep things in place while we proceed-especially since we have our functions down pretty well."

Mike Rizzo had been an assistant GM and vice president of baseball operations for the Nationals since he came over from the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2006.

Monday, March 2, 2009

Is Stan the man?

Stan Kasten has an important job to take care of this spring; find a new general manager. In the meantime however it seems Stan has named himself the man in charge of the front office, and he wants to make some deals.

Deals, trades, signings...you know...the things that quality ball clubs do to move towards the betterment of their team. The thing a club should do if they lose more than 100 games in a year, to try and....get better?

Kasten says he wants to sign Zimmerman to a long term deal (duh), and he is looking to make trades.

What trades or moves would you like to see Kasten make?

Nats young arms sling into spring

Five games into spring and the Nats are starting to get into the swing of things. Coaches are getting to see what kind of talent they have in camp, and players are starting to see where they stack up against the competition. 

This early into the spring however, performance is pretty arbitrary. Some pitchers may simply be using their outings to work on a specific pitch or location, repeating it over and over. Some hitters may be dedicating an entire at-bat to hitting fastballs to right field, or to learning how to sit on a curveball. 

What we can try to decipher is what pitchers have come to camp prepared, and who may have a leg up in the horse-race for the Nats rotation. 
John Lannan: 2 IP, 0 Runs, 0 Hits, 0 BB,  1K
-Lannan is clearly the teams ace, it looks like he came into camp ready to improve on what was a great rookie season.

Colin Balester:2 IP, 0 Runs, 1 Hit, 1 BB, 1 K
-Balester got a taste of the bigs last season and is looking to make the team as an important part of the rotation. If he can continue to pitch with good control and get major league hitters out, it will hard for the Nats to keep him off the roster.

Jason Bergmann: 2 IP, 0 Runs, 1 Hit, 0BB, 0 K
-Bergmann needs to be successful in camp this year after his up and down 2008 campaign.  The Nats as well as most of baseball is just about ready to give on him as a starter, so if he wants to salvage his career...this is the time.

Daniel Cabrera-2 IP, 2 Runs, 4 Hits, 0 BB, 0 K
-This isn't what anyone wanted to see from Cabrera in his first outing. The story with this kid has been the same for the last 5 years, he's got immense talent but can't put it together. The Nats signed him hoping they'd get lucky with him putting it together, doesn't look good so far. But again...it's early.

Gustavo Chachin-2 IP, 0 Runs, 1 Hit, 0 BB, 0 K
-Chachin's performance is a good sign for the Nats. The team picked Chachin up on a chance after his reconstructive arm surgery.  While I haven't heard reports on his velocity in his first outing,  he has always had good stuff. If his arm is back he could be a great addition to the club.

Jordan Zimmerman-2IP, 0 Runs, 0 Hits, 0 BB,  3K's
-Zimmerman is probably the most interesting situation in Nats camp. He is the team's top pitching prospect but could probably use another year in the minors for seasoning. It appears he has come into camp this year blazing as he scorched through the Astro's line up in his first outing...it may be hard to keep him off the roster.

Tyler Clippard- 1 IP, 3 Runs, 2 Hits, 2 BB's, 0 K
-Clippard was a top pitching prospect for the Nationals no more than a year ago but he has not been able to get it done at the major league level, or even triple A. His awful start to camp is a bad omen if he ever hopes to reach his major league potential. 

Ross Detwiler- 0 IP, 3 Runs, 1 Hit, 4 BB's, 0K
-Well so much for Detwiler getting his confidence back. His stuff and resume is so good, he just can not make it past double A....disappointing

Shawn Hill- 1 IP, 0 Runs, 0 Hits, 1 BB, 0K
-Recovering from arm surgery, its good to see he didn't get hurt in his one inning. It's a wait and see game with Hill, if he's 100% he's real hard to hit.

Sunday, March 1, 2009

FFFREEEEEDDDDOOOOOMMM!!!!

ESPN.COM is reporting that as of this morning Nationals General Manager Jim Bowden resigned citing, 'false accusations.' Bowden had been a part of an investigation into a bonus skimming scandal involving Latin American Prospects. 

"He maintained his innocence in the matter, but said Sunday, "I've become a distraction."

The dictator stepped down.

"My resignation is based upon my realization that my ability to properly represent the Washington Nationals has been compromised because of false allegations contains in the press," Bowden said in a statement. "I am disappointed by the media reports regarding investigations into my professional activities. There have been no changes made, and has been no indication that parties have found any wrongdoing on my part.

"At the same time, while I have done nothing wrong, I place greater value on the love, respect, adn best interests of my family, friends, and the game of baseball - -that I've served lovingly and faithfully for close to 25 years -- and, the reputation and future of the Washington Nationals, which I'm proud to have been a part of since its inception in 2004."

And so the saga of the young naive baseball franchise and the manipulative, moronic general manager ends. For four years the Washington Nationals have wanted nothing but their freedom from the tyrannical dictator in their front office. It had been an abusive relationship, one in which the fans had no voice, no representation, and no support for any of the decisions made about the future of their team. 

Fans had wanted baseball for so long, they didn't care what the cost was to put a team on the field. Washington stood idly by as Jim Bowden was named the leader of our teams baseball operations, but what did the city know? It had been decades since there was baseball in the nations capital and a bad general manager couldn't do too much harm could he?

Oops. 

Over the last four years Jim Bowden may have been the most detrimental general manager in all of baseball. Never mind his team's decreasing win-loss record, or the fact that we're a joke to many pundits and even coaches across the league. The real pain Bowden inflected was with his vendetta to recreate the 2003 Reds and his inability to capitalize on tradable talent when the time arose.

As Poppa Yoder said today

"One week from right now we will be in Space Coast stadium -- and Jim Bowden won't!"

Thursday, February 26, 2009

The Nats need to fire Bowden now, not later

Since Mr. Bowden has come to Washington he has made many moves that have raised many eye-brows. He has led the Nationals with an iron-fisted fortitude but without any clear direction. One thing has been for sure however, since 2005, Jim Bowden has been in charge. 


While the team has been far from successful, the man has had some minor victories. His trade for Alfonso Soriano was a steal and brought excitement to RFK. He acquired Milledge for next to nothing and had a gamble payoff in the Rule-9 selection of Jesus Flores. 

But while Bowden has made some positive moves in Washington, it is the moves that he has not made that are most damaging. He did not trade Alfonso Soriano when he was the hottest commodity in baseball. He did not trade Dimitri Young when it was clear Young had no future with the team. He didn't trade Cristian Guzman, Chad Cordero or Jose Guillen. He finally traded Jose Vidro, but long after his value was gone.

Where Bowden has destroyed this team is by not taking advantage of great opportunities. Too many times did the trade deadline pass with Jim Bowden stuck, keeping a player of no value to the teams future, when he could have added productive pieces to a championship puzzle.

This scandal gives Stan Kasten an opportunity he can not pass up. Firing Jim Bowden after he landed Adam Dunn would be otherwise impossible. This scandal however provides them the opportunity to make him the scapegoat, and get him out before he can hurt this team anymore. 

The team can not afford to wait. Unlike many GM's, Jim Bowden has and will hurt this team during the season, not just in the winter. This club needs to start growing immediately. It's roster is absurdly unbalanced and we need a GM who will get in there, roll up his sleeves, and get to work. Not one who want's to hold on to his failed ideas.


Nats strongly considering change- Baseball Prospectus

According to a Baseball Prospectus article by John Perrotto, the Nationals are currently considering firing general manager Jim Bowden following the bonus skipping scandal. 

"The Nationals, according to multiple industry sources, are strongly considering firing general manager Jim Bowden and replacing him with Blue Jays assistant GM Tony LaCava.

Bowden has been implicated in a bonus skimming scandal in the Dominican Republic and is reportedly being investigated by the FBI. Jose Rijo, the former major-league pitcher and a special assistant to Bowden, has taken leave of absence in wake of the allegations.

LaCava is highly regarded inside the game and has interviewed for GM jobs with Pirates and Mariners in the last year-and-a-half. Commissioner Bud Selig reportedly has given Nationals president Stan Kasten permission to hire LaCava without interviewing minority candidates because of the special circumstances of a change of GM being necessitated after spring training has started."

Wednesday, February 25, 2009

Rijo Bites the dust

The Nationals have fired special assistant General Manager Jose Rijo today following the events and revelations stemming from Esmailyngate. 

Rijo had been asked by Nationals officials to leave the teams training camp in Vierra, Florida earlier this week. However as the scandal has escalated past just the age-changing of Esmailyn Gonzalez and turned into what is now a full out investigation on the Nationals scouting and player development program, someone had to bite the dust.

As a result, the Nats will now close down their academy in the Dominican which had been operated out of Rijo's own baseball complex. 

Heads are rolling, is Bowden next?

Tuesday, February 24, 2009

Who to bat where, challenging conventional thought - Leading off

I think Nats fans have come to accept the idea that the first five spots of the Nationals lineup for 2009 are set in stone. Manager Manny Acta hasn't commented on any possible change from last season other than of course the addition of Adam Dunn, and the lineup in place at the end of the season seemed to work pretty well. 


But what if Acta is wrong? Conventional thought, after all, did lead the Nats to a 102 loss season last year. Sure, Guzman has great speed and contact, but he gets on base at a very poor rate. Milledge gets good wood on the ball but will his power develop in the two spot? Who is really a better number three hitter, Zimmerman or Dunn? What about Elijah Dukes?

Lets start today by looking at the leadoff spot:

Cristian Guzman
Guzman was the Nats leadoff hitter for 40 games in 2008. While hitting in that spot he batted .337 while getting on base at .363, which are very solid numbers for any hitter. His slugging percentage (.448) however, was low enough to logically eliminate him from batting anywhere higher than two in the line up. His on base percentage at this spot, while good for most positions in the line up, is basically just average for a Major League leadoff  hitter. 

Guzman batted number two in the line up for the Nats in 83 games in 2008. He hit .310 while getting on base at only .340. He slugged about the same as he did in the one spot. Here we can see that in 2008 Guzman was more successful in the leadoff spot for the Nats as far as hitting is concerned. Ironically however, while Guzman got on base more often in the lead off spot, he scored more runs in the second spot. 1 run every 7 plate appearances in the #2 spot, and 1 run every 9.4 plate appearances at the leadoff spot. 
2008 is a relatively small sample size however. 

In Guzman's career while batting first he has hit .291/.326/.441. This is where he has earned his rap as a bad leadoff hitter. He's your typical swing at everything, high hits/high outs player. Players like these include: Juan Pierre, a younger Jose Reyes, and Luis Castillo. 

In his career while batting second Guzman's batted .270/.303/.387, which is really pretty bad for anywhere in the line up. It seems for Guzman that while he has the hitters approach to bat second(lots of contact, low strikeouts), he performs far far better in the leadoff spot. Sadly for the Nats however, historically his performance as a leadoff hitter has been not good enough. 

So why the success in 2008 while leading off for Guzman? You could argue it was simply the result of a small sample size within the shortstops career year. This is certainly possible. Another explanation however, could be that the Nats shortstop has matured and at the age of 30 has finally learned how to hit, how to take pitches, and how to get on base. This is possible, but lets not forget that in a full season last year Guzman only drew 23 walks in (Dunn drew 144 last year). 

Lastings Milledge- 
 Milledge is the most athletic player on the Nationals roster. With this he probably one day will have the ability to bat at any spot in the order, which is why we saw him pretty much split evenly playing time at the number two, three, four, and five spot on all be it a weak team. Milledge is unique in that while he has the speed to be a leadoff hitter, but he also has the potential power to be a three, four or five.

Milledge has never hit in the lead off spot in his career, but this doesn't mean he shouldn't be considered. The young outfielder led the Nationals in steals in 2008, and while he only compiled one more walk than Guzman (in a good deal less plate appearances) his first and second half splits are promising for a young player. Overall Milledge put up a line of .268/.330/.402, but in the second half of 2008 in 58 games he had a line of .299/.355/.448. So we can see that Milledge certainly has the athleticism, and is growing the patience to be a potential leadoff. But is his mindset in the right place?
Let's not forget that he did spend time in the Mets organization under the tutelage of the best leadoff hitter of all time, Rickey Henderson. While whether or not spending time with Rickey will do anything positive for your overall mindset is debatable, but the guy knows how to hit in leadoff situations. This lead me to notice an odd trend with Lastings Milledge, he is one of the only players you will find who will hit better with no runners on base. In 287 at bats with no runners on Milledge batted a very solid .286/.337/.446. It's fascinating, he not only gets on base at a higher rate but hits for power better too. With no one on and no outs, a true leadoff situation, Milledge went .298/.346/.504, not bad for a 23 year old.

Adam Dunn
Chill out...just read it:

When Adam Dunn was in his second year for Cincinatti, then Reds manager Bob Bo
one (yes our Bob Boone) tossed out the idea of the 6 foot 6 super slugger leading off. He got a lot of flack for it, and while he gave it an attempt every now and then there was great pressure from the media and the fans to plug that big donkey back in the heart of the order. But Boone may have been on to something...

Dunn, especially in his younger days, was an extremely underrated baserunner. You wouldn't expect someone of his size to be a base stealing threat, but in the minors and his first full season in the majors he was stealing 20 bags a year. While today that may be a lot to expect from the 29 year old 275 pounder, he can still run around the bases like the former Texas University football recruit he was. 

Fleet feet aside, the experiment to hit Dunn at leadoff had many progressive baseball fans excited. There were several basic principles behind the idea. First, hitters (except Milledge) hit better with runners on base, and Dunn gets on base better than just about anyone in baseball. Second,  power hitters like Dunn hit for better power with the bases empty, because pitchers are more confident in trying to pitch to them. And lastly, if your team can score first you have a higher percentage of winning the ball game, and while batting your big bopper may make it more likely to score only one or two runs in the first as opposed to a big inning, it still gives you that early lead. 

Dunn has only batted leadoff in 17 games and 56 at bats in his career. At that spot he only batted .217, but got on base at .371 and slugged .569 for a very impressive OPS of .961. While this is a small sample size, the most impressive stat for his leadoff experience is that out of his 12 hits, 7 of them were home runs. However no matter where he has batted in the line up, Dunn has gotten on base, which really is the most important thing for leadoff hitters. People point to Dunn's low batting average in 2008, but he actually got on base 38 more times than Guzman did in the same year.

Anderson Hernandez
Hernandez was a career back up infielder for the Mets who got by on the fact that he had a slick glove and nothing else. Early on the Mets hoped he would develop into a career long double play partner with franchise cornerstone Jose Reyes, however his inconsistency at the plate caused them to give up and acquire the veteran Luis Castillo. The Nats acquired 
Hernandz late in 2008 and during his short time in Washington produced incredibly well, almost all but securing himself the second base job in D.C for 2009. 

During his 28 game stint Hernandez put up a line of .333/.407/.383, proving Hernandez as a true slap hitting second basemen. In 11 of those games he batted leadoff for the Nats and excelled even more, to the tune of .360/.429/.420. He was a natural! If small sample sizes tell us anything, and of course they do, Hernandez is on his way to be the best leadoff hitter in history. Sadly, some Nats fans would have you to believe this.

So what should we think about Hernandez? The guy came over after not getting much chance to perform for a division rival and flat out excelled. Hernandez then went on to absolutely dominate the Dominican Winter league in 2008/2009, almost leading the league in batting and showing some serious power. So yes, it's possible that this 26 year old just needed a change of scenery and is finally coming into his own. We have seen this before, a player was a career disappointment for one organization and a star for another. 

But a look at Hernandez's minor league stats may suggest otherwise. In 2005 Hernandez totaled between high A and double A for a line of .315/.357/.421, however the very next year he couldn't produce the same type of numbers, batting an abysmal .246/.282/.291 in trippe A (this is when the Mets acquired Castillo). In 2007 it looked like Hernandez may have finally figured it out, batting .301/.339/.397, but again the very next year he couldn't hit himself out of the minors batting .203/.262/.307 before his inevitable trade to Washington. 

Boys and girls, it seems like what we have here is your typical streak hitter. Great one year, awful the next, totally a matter of luck. I could be wrong, I hope Hernandez comes out and bats .280 and stays a Major Leaguer, but history points to probably not. 

Analysis

Sadly, as we have proven here today, while Cristian Guzman is by no means a desired leadoff hitter he is probably the best option for the Nationals. Milledge could possibly out perform him but we of course want Milledge to develop into a power hitting 30/30 outfielder, so we can't compromise that by moving him up to the number one slot. Dunn would certainly be an exciting change of pace, and probably be more productive as a leadoff hitter than Guzman but we desperately need his bat in the middle. Someone on this team needs to be able to give protection to Zimmerman and Dukes and with limited options it has to be him. And Anderson Hernandez appears to be an apparition, and at 5-9 170 he may not have the wheels to bat leadoff. 

So what do you think? Who bats leadoff in 2009?

Monday, February 23, 2009

Bye bye Odalis

Well..Kasten must read The Nats Blog because the day after we blasted him for his handling of the problems in spring training he at least did something. It was reported today that the Nationals have officially released starting pitcher Odalis Perez for refusing to report to training camp. It was a good call...and it's not too clear what Perez will do now. He might be managed even worse than the Nats front office.

Sunday, February 22, 2009

So who's in charge here, really?

Spring training has only been underway for about a week and already peaceful little space coast stadium seems ready to take off.


Everything seemed to be going so well when the club finally got a free agent signed, Adam Dunn, for a contract that was very Nationals friendly. But since that afternoon there has been a severe lack of something very important in the baseball filled chaos that is Florida spring training; leadership. 

It started off simply enough, last years opening day starter Odalis Perez refused to come to camp and instead said he would hold out for a new contract. Happens all the time, this is the NFL right? We do see these types of holdouts a lot in a sport like football. A player signs a contract years ago, has outperformed that contract, and with the high risk of injury of the sport believes he deserves to be paid at the level he is now playing.

Well Perez signed his contract this winter....less than a month ago. Perez had been waived by the Nationals after the season ended because they believed he would want more money than they were willing to pay. Both teams got caught in a bind, Perez couldn't find a home, the Nats couldn't find starters. The compromise was made, and Perez was given a chance at a Major League contract...fair enough right?

Evidently not.

"It's odd," Nationals President Stan Kasten said, "It's a first time for me. I don't know what's behind it."

It's good to see that the president of the club has no ability to take charge of this situation. Allow me to translate:

"Huh...this is weird."
No action, no releasing Perez or setting an example to his club that this type of me first team second attitude is unacceptable. No, instead Kasten is content with just sitting around to wait and see if it's gonna be okay.

This was only the beginning of the Kasten quotes. Following the Esmailyn Gonzalez fallout he was just plain angry, but far from professional: 

"I'm not exactly sure how to refer to him, so for now I'll just call him 'the Player to be named later..An elaborate scheme..I'm angry. I'm very angry. We've ben defrauded. And make no mistake: this wasn't a college kid with a fake ID. This was a deliberate, premeditated fraud, that involved bribes, along with falsified hospital and school records."

We could all feel his frustration, in fact most of us felt the same way. But while this tirade was entertaining it was oh so empty. Who's accountable? Who's to blame? What's the plan stan?Natstown is looking to you here, and you are throwing a tantrum. 

The truth is that nobody will take responsibility for Esmailyn. In a Chico Harlan article with Gonzalez's agent, Stan King, King blamed society saying Gonzalez had to be the victim. 

"I don't know where the origins of this thing are. It seems to me this thing is much too complicated and involved for a 19 - or 20-year-old from an impoverished neighborhood to pull off. He may have been duped himself."

"He sounded remorseful," King said (of Gonzalez). "He sounded contrite, He sounded relieved, as if this weight had been lifted off of him."

So if it wasn't his agent's fault, and it wasn't Esmailyn's fault...someone had to blame. What of that shady 'handler' down in the Dominican. You know...the guy who took Esmailyn into his home, fed and clothed him, trained him, and introduced him to the Major League scouts. A nice guy right? Let's not forget the $230,000 commission he gained in the process.

An ESPN the Magazine report by Jorge Arangure Jr. however cites Basil
lo Vizcaino as blaming Major League Baseball for this whole fiasco:

'What is most troubling for MLB's office in the Dominican Republic is that Lugo(Gonzalez), according to Vizcaino, passed the age investigation requests of at least three teams -- the Nationals, the Yankees, and the Redsox. Two baseball sources said that the Redsox  and Yankees received reports from MLB that confirmed that the player was 16 in 2006. 

Vizcaino said in each instance baseball investigators, who are sub-contracted by MLB visited the player's supposed hospital of birth, the player's supposed school and his hometown of Bani to interview people and to review documents. Each time the player's identity was confirmed, though major league officials were skeptical.'
Well apparently neither Stan King nor Kasten are to blame, nor his Dominican handler or the scout that found him Jose Rijo...nope it's Major League Baseball. An easy target to say the least, you'd be hard struck to find ANYONE who is happy with the MLB right now. If that won't work I'm sure someone on the team will blame it on minorities, the rich, the poor, or the Halle Bop comet. 

But I'm not buying it, and neither is the FBI who took notice when it realized that some recent  Dominican prospects signing bonus money could not be found...anywhere. It let to a major investigation on a bonus skimming scheme that led to the Feds investigating Nats scout Jose Rijo and general manager Jim Bowden.

But Bowden has more pressing matters currently. He has been the General Manager of a team that has gone 284 -363 under his tutelage and currently is put together like a grab bag of McDonalds happy meal toys. 

The club has seven outfielders and one legitimate starting pitcher. The N
ats made their biggest free agent splash ever by signing Adam Dunn, but their next best hitter already plays Dunn's best position. Now at third string at first base is Dimitri Young who shouldn't really be anywhere except at maybe a Hooters wing eating contest, but certainly not here. The Nats had a great opportunity to trade this surprise All-Star in 2007 and in a sense cash in on a winning lottery ticket, instead they are now paying him $5 million dollars to likely start the season in the minors. 

Good call Jim...Good call. 

I think Yahoo Sports columnist Tim Brown put it best when he said:

"The Nationals don't win ballgames, they don't fill their new park (apparently they don't even pay the rent on their new ballpark), they accessorize their roster with misfits and then they don't avoid some very humiliating episodes. What they really need is stability, followed someday by credibility."

By the way anyone here from Stan Kasten recently?

"Thanks for writing," Kasten said in an email to ESPN's Arangure Jr., "But I wont be talking about this anymore for a while."
BallHype: hype it up!

Saturday, February 21, 2009

Nats line-up posed to breakout -BP says

The numbers have been entered into PECOTA, Baseball Prospectus's projection system, and BP writer Jay Jaffe has listed his 'Breakout Bunch: Hitters.' 


"What follows are a handful of players - curiously concentrated among a small number of teams - whom PECOTA sees as excellent breakout candidates at the major league level this year, with Breakout Rates of at least 33 percent. Each is forecast for at least 400 plate appearances, a .275 Equivalent Average, and a 2.5 WARP(Wins above replacement player). "

On the list of seven players were three Nationals.

Elijah Dukes- Projected .278/.386/.486, 4 WARP, 54% Breakout Rate
Lastings Milledge- Projected .281/.352/ .442, 3.3 WARP, 43% Breakout Rate
Ryan Zimmerman - Projected .289/.358/.471, 4.2 WARP, 40% Breakout Rate

This is pretty exciting. Baseball Prospectus is the most reliable people in the business in terms of evaluating talent and projecting success/failure. PECOTA has earned the right to be called the best after years of backing it up. 

Most comforting is that the most reliable source on baseball talent is reassuring Nats fans that we aren't alone in our beliefs in the talent of these players. In the past I've seen many fans of this area of a variety of sports get high on young players that really didn't have much of a future. We get excited, whether it be the Redskins, the Wizards, or even the Orioles, but too often are too biased to see the truth about their abilities. 

This is the first nationally published, positive forecast for the Washington Nationals I may have ever seen. While it isn't calling for much, it is promising to know that this line up could develop into something, and one day be the heart of a competitive team. 

Thursday, February 19, 2009

Thrilledge to change to number 85

With the arrival of big name free agent Adam Dunn, Lastings Milledge reached out and made a gesture. The young center fielder deferred to his elder Dunn and gave up his number 44 jersey. Dunn had worn 44 all his career in Cincinnati and Milledge didn't even have to be asked.


"He hit 240 (homers) the last six years," Milledge said. "How...am I going to wear that and let him wear another number?"

Milledge will now wear number 85, an odd number for any Major League player. Traditionally higher numbers are reserved for those in spring training who are trying to make the big league club. A good way to tell what chance a player has of making the club is if his number is above or below 50. Milledge chose 85 simply because he was  born in 1985. 

The number change has already brought some humor to the clubhouse. Manny Acta reportedly stuck a piece of white tap with "Ocho-Cinco 85" written in black marker on Milledge's locker, a reference to the Cincinnati Bengals receiver Chad Johnson. 

While Dunn didn't ask Milledge for the number, he was grateful his new teammate deferred to him. He didn't however agree with Milledge's choice for his new number.

"That number's so ugly,"  Dunn said. "I might just give this one back."