Who to bat where, challenging conventional thought - Leading off

I think Nats fans have come to accept the idea that the first five spots of the Nationals lineup for 2009 are set in stone. Manager Manny Acta hasn't commented on any possible change from last season other than of course the addition of Adam Dunn, and the lineup in place at the end of the season seemed to work pretty well. 

But what if Acta is wrong? Conventional thought, after all, did lead the Nats to a 102 loss season last year. Sure, Guzman has great speed and contact, but he gets on base at a very poor rate. Milledge gets good wood on the ball but will his power develop in the two spot? Who is really a better number three hitter, Zimmerman or Dunn? What about Elijah Dukes?

Lets start today by looking at the leadoff spot:

Cristian Guzman

Guzman was the Nats leadoff hitter for 40 games in 2008. While hitting in that spot he batted .337 while getting on base at .363, which are very solid numbers for any hitter. His slugging percentage (.448) however, was low enough to logically eliminate him from batting anywhere higher than two in the line up. His on base percentage at this spot, while good for most positions in the line up, is basically just average for a Major League leadoff  hitter. 

Guzman batted number two in the line up for the Nats in 83 games in 2008. He hit .310 while getting on base at only .340. He slugged about the same as he did in the one spot. Here we can see that in 2008 Guzman was more successful in the leadoff spot for the Nats as far as hitting is concerned. Ironically however, while Guzman got on base more often in the lead off spot, he scored more runs in the second spot. 1 run every 7 plate appearances in the #2 spot, and 1 run every 9.4 plate appearances at the leadoff spot. 

2008 is a relatively small sample size however. 

In Guzman's career while batting first he has hit .291/.326/.441. This is where he has earned his rap as a bad leadoff hitter. He's your typical swing at everything, high hits/high outs player. Players like these include: Juan Pierre, a younger Jose Reyes, and Luis Castillo. 

In his career while batting second Guzman's batted .270/.303/.387, which is really pretty bad for anywhere in the line up. It seems for Guzman that while he has the hitters approach to bat second(lots of contact, low strikeouts), he performs far far better in the leadoff spot. Sadly for the Nats however, historically his performance as a leadoff hitter has been not good enough. 

So why the success in 2008 while leading off for Guzman? You could argue it was simply the result of a small sample size within the shortstops career year. This is certainly possible. Another explanation however, could be that the Nats shortstop has matured and at the age of 30 has finally learned how to hit, how to take pitches, and how to get on base. This is possible, but lets not forget that in a full season last year Guzman only drew 23 walks in (Dunn drew 144 last year). 

Lastings Milledge- 

 Milledge is the most athletic player on the Nationals roster. With this he probably one day will have the ability to bat at any spot in the order, which is why we saw him pretty much split evenly playing time at the number two, three, four, and five spot on all be it a weak team. Milledge is unique in that while he has the speed to be a leadoff hitter, but he also has the potential power to be a three, four or five.

Milledge has never hit in the lead off spot in his career, but this doesn't mean he shouldn't be considered. The young outfielder led the Nationals in steals in 2008, and while he only compiled one more walk than Guzman (in a good deal less plate appearances) his first and second half splits are promising for a young player. Overall Milledge put up a line of .268/.330/.402, but in the second half of 2008 in 58 games he had a line of .299/.355/.448. So we can see that Milledge certainly has the athleticism, and is growing the patience to be a potential leadoff. But is his mindset in the right place?

Let's not forget that he did spend time in the Mets organization under the tutelage of the best leadoff hitter of all time, Rickey Henderson. While whether or not spending time with Rickey will do anything positive for your overall mindset is debatable, but the guy knows how to hit in leadoff situations. This lead me to notice an odd trend with Lastings Milledge, he is one of the only players you will find who will hit better with no runners on base. In 287 at bats with no runners on Milledge batted a very solid .286/.337/.446. It's fascinating, he not only gets on base at a higher rate but hits for power better too. With no one on and no outs, a true leadoff situation, Milledge went .298/.346/.504, not bad for a 23 year old.

Adam Dunn

Chill out...just read it:

When Adam Dunn was in his second year for Cincinatti, then Reds manager Bob Bo

one (yes our Bob Boone) tossed out the idea of the 6 foot 6 super slugger leading off. He got a lot of flack for it, and while he gave it an attempt every now and then there was great pressure from the media and the fans to plug that big donkey back in the heart of the order. But Boone may have been on to something...

Dunn, especially in his younger days, was an extremely underrated baserunner. You wouldn't expect someone of his size to be a base stealing threat, but in the minors and his first full season in the majors he was stealing 20 bags a year. While today that may be a lot to expect from the 29 year old 275 pounder, he can still run around the bases like the former Texas University football recruit he was. 

Fleet feet aside, the experiment to hit Dunn at leadoff had many progressive baseball fans excited. There were several basic principles behind the idea. First, hitters (except Milledge) hit better with runners on base, and Dunn gets on base better than just about anyone in baseball. Second,  power hitters like Dunn hit for better power with the bases empty, because pitchers are more confident in trying to pitch to them. And lastly, if your team can score first you have a higher percentage of winning the ball game, and while batting your big bopper may make it more likely to score only one or two runs in the first as opposed to a big inning, it still gives you that early lead. 

Dunn has only batted leadoff in 17 games and 56 at bats in his career. At that spot he only batted .217, but got on base at .371 and slugged .569 for a very impressive OPS of .961. While this is a small sample size, the most impressive stat for his leadoff experience is that out of his 12 hits, 7 of them were home runs. However no matter where he has batted in the line up, Dunn has gotten on base, which really is the most important thing for leadoff hitters. People point to Dunn's low batting average in 2008, but he actually got on base 38 more times than Guzman did in the same year.

Anderson Hernandez

Hernandez was a career back up infielder for the Mets who got by on the fact that he had a slick glove and nothing else. Early on the Mets hoped he would develop into a career long double play partner with franchise cornerstone Jose Reyes, however his inconsistency at the plate caused them to give up and acquire the veteran Luis Castillo. The Nats acquired 

Hernandz late in 2008 and during his short time in Washington produced incredibly well, almost all but securing himself the second base job in D.C for 2009. 

During his 28 game stint Hernandez put up a line of .333/.407/.383, proving Hernandez as a true slap hitting second basemen. In 11 of those games he batted leadoff for the Nats and excelled even more, to the tune of .360/.429/.420. He was a natural! If small sample sizes tell us anything, and of course they do, Hernandez is on his way to be the best leadoff hitter in history. Sadly, some Nats fans would have you to believe this.

So what should we think about Hernandez? The guy came over after not getting much chance to perform for a division rival and flat out excelled. Hernandez then went on to absolutely dominate the Dominican Winter league in 2008/2009, almost leading the league in batting and showing some serious power. So yes, it's possible that this 26 year old just needed a change of scenery and is finally coming into his own. We have seen this before, a player was a career disappointment for one organization and a star for another. 

But a look at Hernandez's minor league stats may suggest otherwise. In 2005 Hernandez totaled between high A and double A for a line of .315/.357/.421, however the very next year he couldn't produce the same type of numbers, batting an abysmal .246/.282/.291 in trippe A (this is when the Mets acquired Castillo). In 2007 it looked like Hernandez may have finally figured it out, batting .301/.339/.397, but again the very next year he couldn't hit himself out of the minors batting .203/.262/.307 before his inevitable trade to Washington. 

Boys and girls, it seems like what we have here is your typical streak hitter. Great one year, awful the next, totally a matter of luck. I could be wrong, I hope Hernandez comes out and bats .280 and stays a Major Leaguer, but history points to probably not. 

Analysis

Sadly, as we have proven here today, while Cristian Guzman is by no means a desired leadoff hitter he is probably the best option for the Nationals. Milledge could possibly out perform him but we of course want Milledge to develop into a power hitting 30/30 outfielder, so we can't compromise that by moving him up to the number one slot. Dunn would certainly be an exciting change of pace, and probably be more productive as a leadoff hitter than Guzman but we desperately need his bat in the middle. Someone on this team needs to be able to give protection to Zimmerman and Dukes and with limited options it has to be him. And Anderson Hernandez appears to be an apparition, and at 5-9 170 he may not have the wheels to bat leadoff. 

So what do you think? Who bats leadoff in 2009?