The Nats Blog heads to Florida

Pappa Yoder and I have our bags packed and are set to fly down to Vierra, Florida this weekend to spend three days in what may be baseball's purest state, spring training. This isn't our first trip down south to see our favorite ball players train, in fact it has been an annual pilgrimage for us. Up until this trip however, I have only been roaming the fields of Florida as a fan, but now for the first time I will be down there as a reporter to bring all you Nats Fans to the action.

The Nats Blog In Florida

While down south we'll be bringing our readers several different things. First if you look to your right, we've added Twitter to the right side panel. This means that we will be able to update from our cell phones on everything that is going on in camp and in games. So if you can't watch the game or listen to it, at least you can read our 140 character or less rants about it.

Also make sure to check in for nightly video blogs!

Old habits tend to die hard

Last season the Nats entered the 2008 campaign assuming Shawn Hill would be their ace in the hole. There was one problem, forearm pain. Every time he would pitch, there it would be, forearm pain. Not elbow tendentious, not a torn rotator cuff...just forearm pain.

He said he could pitch through it last year, but a 1-5 record with a 5.83 ERA disagreed; and so did Manny Acta. Hill tried to return to the mound several times in 2008 but just couldn't get past that nagging injury. Finally the Nats decided to shut him down, and give him a long time to rest and heal-up.

Now, no less than two innings into the 2009 training camp, forearm pain.

Stick a fork in him Nats fans, he's done.

Jordan Zimmerman

JZIM on the other hand has another habit he can't seem to kill; impressing people by overachieving. No one expected this 23 year old stud to dominate single and double A last season en route to being named the Nationals top prospect by just about every publication.

He's doing it again.

So far this spring the young pitcher has been absolutely perfect. Coming into camp, many, including The Nats Blog, suggested that he pitch at least half a season down in triple A to ensure he gets good seasoning and wasn't rushed. You can't ignore numbers like this however. Numbers like this give an unknown third basemen like Albert Pujols a job for an injured Fernando Tatis, or a troubled Josh Hamilton a shot at making the Cincinnati Reds. Yeah, it's early as hell...but look what he's done so far:

Jordan Zimmerman, SP
2 G, 5IP, 0H, 0R 0BB, 6K

I know he's a Philly, but this is funny

Who to bat where, challenging conventional thought -Batting Second

As this is our second segment in this series, I suggest you read the first segment on who the Nats should leadoff, to catch up. 

But if you're lazy here's the summary: While Cristian Guzman is by no means a typical leadoff hitter, the combination of his growing maturity, laser eye surgery, and lack of Nationals options make him the best candidate to leadoff in 2009. Other options discussed were Lastings Milledge for his athleticism, Anderson Hernandez for his late season success last year, and Adam Dunn for his surprising speed and ability to get on base. 

But now the question arises of who Manny Acta should, not will, bat behind Guzman at the leadoff spot. The number two hitter has several important responsibilities, and many believe he can be the most crucial in putting runs on the board. We have to look no further than to see what Derek Jeter has done for the Yankees throughout the years, or the stunning effect Dustin Pedroia had for the Redsox offense last year. 

Most importantly the number two hitter needs to be able to put the bat on the ball. If the leadoff hitter gets on base, it's the number two hitters job to get him to second or third so that the three and four hitter can do damage. In the past this meant the second hitter had to be ready to bunt, but in todays game it means that he has to handle hit and runs, hit to the opposite side of the field, and run the bases just as well as anyone on the team.

So who fits that role on the Washington Nationals?

Lastings Milledge

Milledge has the potential to bat just about anywhere in the line up. He combines power with speed, the ability to hit for average without sacrificing power or patience. He has good bat control for such a young player and his strikeout rate went down as the season progressed. According to conventional thought this is the best place for Milledge because he will be hitting in front of Zimmerman, Dunn, and Dukes. Their power will be an asset to him seeing good pitches to hit, and his speed will be an asset for them to hit him in.

Last year Milledge batted second in 17 games. He put up a line of .269/.320/.388. While those numbers aren't very impressive we have to remember he was often batting in that spot when the team was having its worst batting struggles. Zimmerman was hurt, Kearns and Pena couldn't bat above .200, and Dukes forgot how to swing a bat. While it's troubling that he hasn't had much tangible success at this spot... athletically and in terms of tools, he may be the best option for the Nats. 

Elijah Dukes

Elijah Dukes truly is a puzzle. It's not clear what type of player he will develop to be exactly. At six foot one 240 pounds he has the frame of a power hitter. But his fluidity and                             

speed would have you think that he has future as a center fielder who will hit for a high average. The Nats would probably prefer that he develop more into a power hitting corner outfielder, but they will take anything they can get from a guy who was basically discarded by Tampa Bay.

Dukes saw plenty of action batting in the second spot for the Nationals in 2008. In 23 games he put up a line of .319/.413/.500. He hit three homers, 14 RBI, and five stolen bases. To put it simply, he excelled. Putting numbers like that up for an entire season would make Dukes an all star at any position. While Dukes may be more prone to strikeouts than Milledge, he makes up for it with his higher average and on base percentage. Statistically Dukes is the best option for the two spot...but the Nationals may want to bat him further back in the order to develop his power.

Ryan Zimmerman

Zimmerman has been long crowned our teams franchise hitter and has been bolstered in the number three spot in the line up for the last three years. But is he a true number three hitter? Sure his numbers have been deflated by lack of solid protection in the line up, but will he actually translate to a number three hitter on a championship team?

At the three spot in his career he has put up a line of .278/.339/.457. He has averaged 22 homers and 92 RBI per 162 games, which is very solid. But a number three hitter has to be the most pure  hitter on the team. While .278 with 20 homers and close to 100 RBI's is great, its hardly anything from pure. The Nats might be better off if they decide to move Zimmerman to the two slot where he can be a little bit more liberal about the pitches he swings at.

Conclusion 

The Nats have much better options to bat in the second spot than they do the leadoff. All three options of Milledge, Dukes, and Zimmerman would be sought after by any team. While Milledge may project to be a better number two hitter down the road, I think the Nats best option is Elijah Dukes. Numbers don't lie and Dukes number two slot stats are excellent. If he develops into a power hitter that outgrows the two spot, so be it...but in 2009 the Nats should bat Dukes number 2. 

Mike Rizzo to take over baseball opperations

It was announced today that Mike Rizzo will take control of the day-to-day operations of the Washington Nationals after the resignation of Jim Bowden. While Stan Kasten had announced earlier that he would be in charge until a replacement general manager could be found, he took a step back today by putting Rizzo in the lead spot as interim GM.

Kasten assured that he will maintain final say on all baseball decisions.

"We've had enough instability in the last couple of weeks. I like stability. I don't like interim titles, by nature, because they suggest instability. So I'd rather just keep things in place while we proceed-especially since we have our functions down pretty well."

Mike Rizzo had been an assistant GM and vice president of baseball operations for the Nationals since he came over from the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2006.

Is Stan the man?

Stan Kasten has an important job to take care of this spring; find a new general manager. In the meantime however it seems Stan has named himself the man in charge of the front office, and he wants to make some deals.

Deals, trades, signings...you know...the things that quality ball clubs do to move towards the betterment of their team. The thing a club should do if they lose more than 100 games in a year, to try and....get better?

Kasten says he wants to sign Zimmerman to a long term deal (duh), and he is looking to make trades.

What trades or moves would you like to see Kasten make?

Nats young arms sling into spring

Five games into spring and the Nats are starting to get into the swing of things. Coaches are getting to see what kind of talent they have in camp, and players are starting to see where they stack up against the competition. 

This early into the spring however, performance is pretty arbitrary. Some pitchers may simply be using their outings to work on a specific pitch or location, repeating it over and over. Some hitters may be dedicating an entire at-bat to hitting fastballs to right field, or to learning how to sit on a curveball. 

What we can try to decipher is what pitchers have come to camp prepared, and who may have a leg up in the horse-race for the Nats rotation. 

John Lannan: 2 IP, 0 Runs, 0 Hits, 0 BB,  1K

-Lannan is clearly the teams ace, it looks like he came into camp ready to improve on what was a great rookie season.

Colin Balester:2 IP, 0 Runs, 1 Hit, 1 BB, 1 K

-Balester got a taste of the bigs last season and is looking to make the team as an important part of the rotation. If he can continue to pitch with good control and get major league hitters out, it will hard for the Nats to keep him off the roster.

Jason Bergmann: 2 IP, 0 Runs, 1 Hit, 0BB, 0 K

-Bergmann needs to be successful in camp this year after his up and down 2008 campaign.  The Nats as well as most of baseball is just about ready to give on him as a starter, so if he wants to salvage his career...this is the time.

Daniel Cabrera-2 IP, 2 Runs, 4 Hits, 0 BB, 0 K

-This isn't what anyone wanted to see from Cabrera in his first outing. The story with this kid has been the same for the last 5 years, he's got immense talent but can't put it together. The Nats signed him hoping they'd get lucky with him putting it together, doesn't look good so far. But again...it's early.

Gustavo Chachin-2 IP, 0 Runs, 1 Hit, 0 BB, 0 K

-Chachin's performance is a good sign for the Nats. The team picked Chachin up on a chance after his reconstructive arm surgery.  While I haven't heard reports on his velocity in his first outing,  he has always had good stuff. If his arm is back he could be a great addition to the club.

Jordan Zimmerman-2IP, 0 Runs, 0 Hits, 0 BB,  3K's

-Zimmerman is probably the most interesting situation in Nats camp. He is the team's top pitching prospect but could probably use another year in the minors for seasoning. It appears he has come into camp this year blazing as he scorched through the Astro's line up in his first outing...it may be hard to keep him off the roster.

Tyler Clippard- 1 IP, 3 Runs, 2 Hits, 2 BB's, 0 K

-Clippard was a top pitching prospect for the Nationals no more than a year ago but he has not been able to get it done at the major league level, or even triple A. His awful start to camp is a bad omen if he ever hopes to reach his major league potential. 

Ross Detwiler- 0 IP, 3 Runs, 1 Hit, 4 BB's, 0K

-Well so much for Detwiler getting his confidence back. His stuff and resume is so good, he just can not make it past double A....disappointing

Shawn Hill- 1 IP, 0 Runs, 0 Hits, 1 BB, 0K

-Recovering from arm surgery, its good to see he didn't get hurt in his one inning. It's a wait and see game with Hill, if he's 100% he's real hard to hit.

FFFREEEEEDDDDOOOOOMMM!!!!

ESPN.COM is reporting that as of this morning Nationals General Manager Jim Bowden resigned citing, 'false accusations.' Bowden had been a part of an investigation into a bonus skimming scandal involving Latin American Prospects. 

"He maintained his innocence in the matter, but said Sunday, "I've become a distraction."

The dictator stepped down.

"My resignation is based upon my realization that my ability to properly represent the Washington Nationals has been compromised because of false allegations contains in the press," Bowden said in a statement. "I am disappointed by the media reports regarding investigations into my professional activities. There have been no changes made, and has been no indication that parties have found any wrongdoing on my part.

"At the same time, while I have done nothing wrong, I place greater value on the love, respect, adn best interests of my family, friends, and the game of baseball - -that I've served lovingly and faithfully for close to 25 years -- and, the reputation and future of the Washington Nationals, which I'm proud to have been a part of since its inception in 2004."

And so the saga of the young naive baseball franchise and the manipulative, moronic general manager ends. For four years the Washington Nationals have wanted nothing but their freedom from the tyrannical dictator in their front office. It had been an abusive relationship, one in which the fans had no voice, no representation, and no support for any of the decisions made about the future of their team. 

Fans had wanted baseball for so long, they didn't care what the cost was to put a team on the field. Washington stood idly by as Jim Bowden was named the leader of our teams baseball operations, but what did the city know? It had been decades since there was baseball in the nations capital and a bad general manager couldn't do too much harm could he?

Oops. 

Over the last four years Jim Bowden may have been the most detrimental general manager in all of baseball. Never mind his team's decreasing win-loss record, or the fact that we're a joke to many pundits and even coaches across the league. The real pain Bowden inflected was with his vendetta to recreate the 2003 Reds and his inability to capitalize on tradable talent when the time arose.

As Poppa Yoder said today

"One week from right now we will be in Space Coast stadium -- and Jim Bowden won't!"

The Nats need to fire Bowden now, not later

Since Mr. Bowden has come to Washington he has made many moves that have raised many eye-brows. He has led the Nationals with an iron-fisted fortitude but without any clear direction. One thing has been for sure however, since 2005, Jim Bowden has been in charge. 

While the team has been far from successful, the man has had some minor victories. His trade for Alfonso Soriano was a steal and brought excitement to RFK. He acquired Milledge for next to nothing and had a gamble payoff in the Rule-9 selection of Jesus Flores. 

But while Bowden has made some positive moves in Washington, it is the moves that he has not made that are most damaging. He did not trade Alfonso Soriano when he was the hottest commodity in baseball. He did not trade Dimitri Young when it was clear Young had no future with the team. He didn't trade Cristian Guzman, Chad Cordero or Jose Guillen. He finally traded Jose Vidro, but long after his value was gone.

Where Bowden has destroyed this team is by not taking advantage of great opportunities. Too many times did the trade deadline pass with Jim Bowden stuck, keeping a player of no value to the teams future, when he could have added productive pieces to a championship puzzle.

This scandal gives Stan Kasten an opportunity he can not pass up. Firing Jim Bowden after he landed Adam Dunn would be otherwise impossible. This scandal however provides them the opportunity to make him the scapegoat, and get him out before he can hurt this team anymore. 

The team can not afford to wait. Unlike many GM's, Jim Bowden has and will hurt this team during the season, not just in the winter. This club needs to start growing immediately. It's roster is absurdly unbalanced and we need a GM who will get in there, roll up his sleeves, and get to work. Not one who want's to hold on to his failed ideas.

Nats strongly considering change- Baseball Prospectus

According to a Baseball Prospectus article by John Perrotto, the Nationals are currently considering firing general manager Jim Bowden following the bonus skipping scandal. 

"The Nationals, according to multiple industry sources, are strongly considering firing general manager Jim Bowden and replacing him with Blue Jays assistant GM Tony LaCava.

Bowden has been implicated in a bonus skimming scandal in the Dominican Republic and is reportedly being investigated by the FBI. Jose Rijo, the former major-league pitcher and a special assistant to Bowden, has taken leave of absence in wake of the allegations.

LaCava is highly regarded inside the game and has interviewed for GM jobs with Pirates and Mariners in the last year-and-a-half. Commissioner Bud Selig reportedly has given Nationals president Stan Kasten permission to hire LaCava without interviewing minority candidates because of the special circumstances of a change of GM being necessitated after spring training has started."

Rijo Bites the dust

The Nationals have fired special assistant General Manager Jose Rijo today following the events and revelations stemming from Esmailyngate. 

Rijo had been asked by Nationals officials to leave the teams training camp in Vierra, Florida earlier this week. However as the scandal has escalated past just the age-changing of Esmailyn Gonzalez and turned into what is now a full out investigation on the Nationals scouting and player development program, someone had to bite the dust.

As a result, the Nats will now close down their academy in the Dominican which had been operated out of Rijo's own baseball complex. 

Heads are rolling, is Bowden next?

Who to bat where, challenging conventional thought - Leading off

I think Nats fans have come to accept the idea that the first five spots of the Nationals lineup for 2009 are set in stone. Manager Manny Acta hasn't commented on any possible change from last season other than of course the addition of Adam Dunn, and the lineup in place at the end of the season seemed to work pretty well. 

But what if Acta is wrong? Conventional thought, after all, did lead the Nats to a 102 loss season last year. Sure, Guzman has great speed and contact, but he gets on base at a very poor rate. Milledge gets good wood on the ball but will his power develop in the two spot? Who is really a better number three hitter, Zimmerman or Dunn? What about Elijah Dukes?

Lets start today by looking at the leadoff spot:

Cristian Guzman

Guzman was the Nats leadoff hitter for 40 games in 2008. While hitting in that spot he batted .337 while getting on base at .363, which are very solid numbers for any hitter. His slugging percentage (.448) however, was low enough to logically eliminate him from batting anywhere higher than two in the line up. His on base percentage at this spot, while good for most positions in the line up, is basically just average for a Major League leadoff  hitter. 

Guzman batted number two in the line up for the Nats in 83 games in 2008. He hit .310 while getting on base at only .340. He slugged about the same as he did in the one spot. Here we can see that in 2008 Guzman was more successful in the leadoff spot for the Nats as far as hitting is concerned. Ironically however, while Guzman got on base more often in the lead off spot, he scored more runs in the second spot. 1 run every 7 plate appearances in the #2 spot, and 1 run every 9.4 plate appearances at the leadoff spot. 

2008 is a relatively small sample size however. 

In Guzman's career while batting first he has hit .291/.326/.441. This is where he has earned his rap as a bad leadoff hitter. He's your typical swing at everything, high hits/high outs player. Players like these include: Juan Pierre, a younger Jose Reyes, and Luis Castillo. 

In his career while batting second Guzman's batted .270/.303/.387, which is really pretty bad for anywhere in the line up. It seems for Guzman that while he has the hitters approach to bat second(lots of contact, low strikeouts), he performs far far better in the leadoff spot. Sadly for the Nats however, historically his performance as a leadoff hitter has been not good enough. 

So why the success in 2008 while leading off for Guzman? You could argue it was simply the result of a small sample size within the shortstops career year. This is certainly possible. Another explanation however, could be that the Nats shortstop has matured and at the age of 30 has finally learned how to hit, how to take pitches, and how to get on base. This is possible, but lets not forget that in a full season last year Guzman only drew 23 walks in (Dunn drew 144 last year). 

Lastings Milledge- 

 Milledge is the most athletic player on the Nationals roster. With this he probably one day will have the ability to bat at any spot in the order, which is why we saw him pretty much split evenly playing time at the number two, three, four, and five spot on all be it a weak team. Milledge is unique in that while he has the speed to be a leadoff hitter, but he also has the potential power to be a three, four or five.

Milledge has never hit in the lead off spot in his career, but this doesn't mean he shouldn't be considered. The young outfielder led the Nationals in steals in 2008, and while he only compiled one more walk than Guzman (in a good deal less plate appearances) his first and second half splits are promising for a young player. Overall Milledge put up a line of .268/.330/.402, but in the second half of 2008 in 58 games he had a line of .299/.355/.448. So we can see that Milledge certainly has the athleticism, and is growing the patience to be a potential leadoff. But is his mindset in the right place?

Let's not forget that he did spend time in the Mets organization under the tutelage of the best leadoff hitter of all time, Rickey Henderson. While whether or not spending time with Rickey will do anything positive for your overall mindset is debatable, but the guy knows how to hit in leadoff situations. This lead me to notice an odd trend with Lastings Milledge, he is one of the only players you will find who will hit better with no runners on base. In 287 at bats with no runners on Milledge batted a very solid .286/.337/.446. It's fascinating, he not only gets on base at a higher rate but hits for power better too. With no one on and no outs, a true leadoff situation, Milledge went .298/.346/.504, not bad for a 23 year old.

Adam Dunn

Chill out...just read it:

When Adam Dunn was in his second year for Cincinatti, then Reds manager Bob Bo

one (yes our Bob Boone) tossed out the idea of the 6 foot 6 super slugger leading off. He got a lot of flack for it, and while he gave it an attempt every now and then there was great pressure from the media and the fans to plug that big donkey back in the heart of the order. But Boone may have been on to something...

Dunn, especially in his younger days, was an extremely underrated baserunner. You wouldn't expect someone of his size to be a base stealing threat, but in the minors and his first full season in the majors he was stealing 20 bags a year. While today that may be a lot to expect from the 29 year old 275 pounder, he can still run around the bases like the former Texas University football recruit he was. 

Fleet feet aside, the experiment to hit Dunn at leadoff had many progressive baseball fans excited. There were several basic principles behind the idea. First, hitters (except Milledge) hit better with runners on base, and Dunn gets on base better than just about anyone in baseball. Second,  power hitters like Dunn hit for better power with the bases empty, because pitchers are more confident in trying to pitch to them. And lastly, if your team can score first you have a higher percentage of winning the ball game, and while batting your big bopper may make it more likely to score only one or two runs in the first as opposed to a big inning, it still gives you that early lead. 

Dunn has only batted leadoff in 17 games and 56 at bats in his career. At that spot he only batted .217, but got on base at .371 and slugged .569 for a very impressive OPS of .961. While this is a small sample size, the most impressive stat for his leadoff experience is that out of his 12 hits, 7 of them were home runs. However no matter where he has batted in the line up, Dunn has gotten on base, which really is the most important thing for leadoff hitters. People point to Dunn's low batting average in 2008, but he actually got on base 38 more times than Guzman did in the same year.

Anderson Hernandez

Hernandez was a career back up infielder for the Mets who got by on the fact that he had a slick glove and nothing else. Early on the Mets hoped he would develop into a career long double play partner with franchise cornerstone Jose Reyes, however his inconsistency at the plate caused them to give up and acquire the veteran Luis Castillo. The Nats acquired 

Hernandz late in 2008 and during his short time in Washington produced incredibly well, almost all but securing himself the second base job in D.C for 2009. 

During his 28 game stint Hernandez put up a line of .333/.407/.383, proving Hernandez as a true slap hitting second basemen. In 11 of those games he batted leadoff for the Nats and excelled even more, to the tune of .360/.429/.420. He was a natural! If small sample sizes tell us anything, and of course they do, Hernandez is on his way to be the best leadoff hitter in history. Sadly, some Nats fans would have you to believe this.

So what should we think about Hernandez? The guy came over after not getting much chance to perform for a division rival and flat out excelled. Hernandez then went on to absolutely dominate the Dominican Winter league in 2008/2009, almost leading the league in batting and showing some serious power. So yes, it's possible that this 26 year old just needed a change of scenery and is finally coming into his own. We have seen this before, a player was a career disappointment for one organization and a star for another. 

But a look at Hernandez's minor league stats may suggest otherwise. In 2005 Hernandez totaled between high A and double A for a line of .315/.357/.421, however the very next year he couldn't produce the same type of numbers, batting an abysmal .246/.282/.291 in trippe A (this is when the Mets acquired Castillo). In 2007 it looked like Hernandez may have finally figured it out, batting .301/.339/.397, but again the very next year he couldn't hit himself out of the minors batting .203/.262/.307 before his inevitable trade to Washington. 

Boys and girls, it seems like what we have here is your typical streak hitter. Great one year, awful the next, totally a matter of luck. I could be wrong, I hope Hernandez comes out and bats .280 and stays a Major Leaguer, but history points to probably not. 

Analysis

Sadly, as we have proven here today, while Cristian Guzman is by no means a desired leadoff hitter he is probably the best option for the Nationals. Milledge could possibly out perform him but we of course want Milledge to develop into a power hitting 30/30 outfielder, so we can't compromise that by moving him up to the number one slot. Dunn would certainly be an exciting change of pace, and probably be more productive as a leadoff hitter than Guzman but we desperately need his bat in the middle. Someone on this team needs to be able to give protection to Zimmerman and Dukes and with limited options it has to be him. And Anderson Hernandez appears to be an apparition, and at 5-9 170 he may not have the wheels to bat leadoff. 

So what do you think? Who bats leadoff in 2009?

Bye bye Odalis

Well..Kasten must read The Nats Blog because the day after we blasted him for his handling of the problems in spring training he at least did something. It was reported today that the Nationals have officially released starting pitcher Odalis Perez for refusing to report to training camp. It was a good call...and it's not too clear what Perez will do now. He might be managed even worse than the Nats front office.

So who's in charge here, really?

Spring training has only been underway for about a week and already peaceful little space coast stadium seems ready to take off.

Everything seemed to be going so well when the club finally got a free agent signed, Adam Dunn, for a contract that was very Nationals friendly. But since that afternoon there has been a severe lack of something very important in the baseball filled chaos that is Florida spring training; leadership. 

It started off simply enough, last years opening day starter Odalis Perez refused to come to camp and instead said he would hold out for a new contract. Happens all the time, this is the NFL right? We do see these types of holdouts a lot in a sport like football. A player signs a contract years ago, has outperformed that contract, and with the high risk of injury of the sport believes he deserves to be paid at the level he is now playing.

Well Perez signed his contract this winter....less than a month ago. Perez had been waived by the Nationals after the season ended because they believed he would want more money than they were willing to pay. Both teams got caught in a bind, Perez couldn't find a home, the Nats couldn't find starters. The compromise was made, and Perez was given a chance at a Major League contract...fair enough right?

Evidently not.

"It's odd," Nationals President Stan Kasten said, "It's a first time for me. I don't know what's behind it."

It's good to see that the president of the club has no ability to take charge of this situation. Allow me to translate:

"Huh...this is weird."

No action, no releasing Perez or setting an example to his club that this type of me first team second attitude is unacceptable. No, instead Kasten is content with just sitting around to wait and see if it's gonna be okay.

This was only the beginning of the Kasten quotes. Following the Esmailyn Gonzalez fallout he was just plain angry, but far from professional: 

"I'm not exactly sure how to refer to him, so for now I'll just call him 'the Player to be named later..An elaborate scheme..I'm angry. I'm very angry. We've ben defrauded. And make no mistake: this wasn't a college kid with a fake ID. This was a deliberate, premeditated fraud, that involved bribes, along with falsified hospital and school records."

We could all feel his frustration, in fact most of us felt the same way. But while this tirade was entertaining it was oh so empty. Who's accountable? Who's to blame? What's the plan stan?Natstown is looking to you here, and you are throwing a tantrum. 

The truth is that nobody will take responsibility for Esmailyn. In a Chico Harlan article with Gonzalez's agent, Stan King, King blamed society saying Gonzalez had to be the victim. 

"I don't know where the origins of this thing are. It seems to me this thing is much too complicated and involved for a 19 - or 20-year-old from an impoverished neighborhood to pull off. He may have been duped himself."

"He sounded remorseful," King said (of Gonzalez). "He sounded contrite, He sounded relieved, as if this weight had been lifted off of him."

So if it wasn't his agent's fault, and it wasn't Esmailyn's fault...someone had to blame. What of that shady 'handler' down in the Dominican. You know...the guy who took Esmailyn into his home, fed and clothed him, trained him, and introduced him to the Major League scouts. A nice guy right? Let's not forget the $230,000 commission he gained in the process.

An ESPN the Magazine report by Jorge Arangure Jr. however cites Basil

lo Vizcaino as blaming Major League Baseball for this whole fiasco:

'What is most troubling for MLB's office in the Dominican Republic is that Lugo(Gonzalez), according to Vizcaino, passed the age investigation requests of at least three teams -- the Nationals, the Yankees, and the Redsox. Two baseball sources said that the Redsox  and Yankees received reports from MLB that confirmed that the player was 16 in 2006. 

Vizcaino said in each instance baseball investigators, who are sub-contracted by MLB visited the player's supposed hospital of birth, the player's supposed school and his hometown of Bani to interview people and to review documents. Each time the player's identity was confirmed, though major league officials were skeptical.'

Well apparently neither Stan King nor Kasten are to blame, nor his Dominican handler or the scout that found him Jose Rijo...nope it's Major League Baseball. An easy target to say the least, you'd be hard struck to find ANYONE who is happy with the MLB right now. If that won't work I'm sure someone on the team will blame it on minorities, the rich, the poor, or the Halle Bop comet. 

But I'm not buying it, and neither is the FBI who took notice when it realized that some recent  Dominican prospects signing bonus money could not be found...anywhere. It let to a major investigation on a bonus skimming scheme that led to the Feds investigating Nats scout Jose Rijo and general manager Jim Bowden.

But Bowden has more pressing matters currently. He has been the General Manager of a team that has gone 284 -363 under his tutelage and currently is put together like a grab bag of McDonalds happy meal toys. 

The club has seven outfielders and one legitimate starting pitcher. The N

ats made their biggest free agent splash ever by signing Adam Dunn, but their next best hitter already plays Dunn's best position. Now at third string at first base is Dimitri Young who shouldn't really be anywhere except at maybe a Hooters wing eating contest, but certainly not here. The Nats had a great opportunity to trade this surprise All-Star in 2007 and in a sense cash in on a winning lottery ticket, instead they are now paying him $5 million dollars to likely start the season in the minors. 

Good call Jim...Good call. 

I think Yahoo Sports columnist Tim Brown put it best when he said:

"The Nationals don't win ballgames, they don't fill their new park (apparently they don't even pay the rent on their new ballpark), they accessorize their roster with misfits and then they don't avoid some very humiliating episodes. What they really need is stability, followed someday by credibility."

By the way anyone here from Stan Kasten recently?

"Thanks for writing," Kasten said in an email to ESPN's Arangure Jr., "But I wont be talking about this anymore for a while."

Nats line-up posed to breakout -BP says

The numbers have been entered into PECOTA, Baseball Prospectus's projection system, and BP writer Jay Jaffe has listed his 'Breakout Bunch: Hitters.' 

"What follows are a handful of players - curiously concentrated among a small number of teams - whom PECOTA sees as excellent breakout candidates at the major league level this year, with Breakout Rates of at least 33 percent. Each is forecast for at least 400 plate appearances, a .275 Equivalent Average, and a 2.5 WARP(Wins above replacement player). "

On the list of seven players were three Nationals.

Elijah Dukes- Projected .278/.386/.486, 4 WARP, 54% Breakout Rate

Lastings Milledge- Projected .281/.352/ .442, 3.3 WARP, 43% Breakout Rate

Ryan Zimmerman - Projected .289/.358/.471, 4.2 WARP, 40% Breakout Rate

This is pretty exciting. Baseball Prospectus is the most reliable people in the business in terms of evaluating talent and projecting success/failure. PECOTA has earned the right to be called the best after years of backing it up. 

Most comforting is that the most reliable source on baseball talent is reassuring Nats fans that we aren't alone in our beliefs in the talent of these players. In the past I've seen many fans of this area of a variety of sports get high on young players that really didn't have much of a future. We get excited, whether it be the Redskins, the Wizards, or even the Orioles, but too often are too biased to see the truth about their abilities. 

This is the first nationally published, positive forecast for the Washington Nationals I may have ever seen. While it isn't calling for much, it is promising to know that this line up could develop into something, and one day be the heart of a competitive team.