Baseball Prospectus (BP) is quickly becoming the ultimate authority on in depth baseball analysis. They churn out new and genius stats every year that help us better understand what we see on the baseball field. Let’s take an in depth look with BP at how the Nationals are performing individually and as a team this season.
As you can see the Nats are last in runs scored and second to last in runs allowed per game (RS/G, RA/G). In fact we can see they are the only team in the NL East with a negative differential of runs allowed and runs scored, it actually not even very close. PYTH O/U calculates if a team is over or under their projected record. In baseball teams potential records are calculated by the baseball Pythagorean therum, no not the one you learned in school. This theory, created by Bill James, should effectively calculate a teams winning percentage by dividing runs scored squared by runs scored squared plus runs allowed squared. Sounds complicated I know...it’s simpler written out.
As we can see with the Nats PYTH O/U they are not in the red, which means they are actually over their projected ability. Is this a good thing? Well it means that while the team is struggling we’re getting away with wins we probably shouldn’t be, which is good. This of course also means that we’re in last place and should really be doing even worse…which isn’t good. The good news is that the Nats hitting cant get any worse, so when it picks up these numbers will start to look better.
Let’s look at individual success. BP uses VORP to measure the value of players. VORP (Value over replacement player) simply measures the amount of runs a player will produce over a “replacement player.” A replacement player is the most marginal player you can put at a position without them having a positive or a negative impact. So essentially, VORP measures how much better or worse a player is then the next guy.
NATS leaders in VORP
To put this in comparison, Hanley Ramirez has a VORP of 23.4, Albert Pujols has a VORP of 32.8 and a more down to earth player, Aramis Ramirez has a VORP of 13.7. The worst VORP on the Nationals belongs to Austin Kearns wit a -9.6. That’s right, Austin Kearns is playing so terribly, that he is having a rather large negative impact on the team when he plays.
Click here to see the full team audit of theNationals on BaseballProspectus.com
Click here for a glossary of BP terms
All photos and stats are courtesy of baseball prospectus.
As we can see with the Nats PYTH O/U they are not in the red, which means they are actually over their projected ability. Is this a good thing? Well it means that while the team is struggling we’re getting away with wins we probably shouldn’t be, which is good. This of course also means that we’re in last place and should really be doing even worse…which isn’t good. The good news is that the Nats hitting cant get any worse, so when it picks up these numbers will start to look better.Let’s look at individual success. BP uses VORP to measure the value of players. VORP (Value over replacement player) simply measures the amount of runs a player will produce over a “replacement player.” A replacement player is the most marginal player you can put at a position without them having a positive or a negative impact. So essentially, VORP measures how much better or worse a player is then the next guy.
NATS leaders in VORP
To put this in comparison, Hanley Ramirez has a VORP of 23.4, Albert Pujols has a VORP of 32.8 and a more down to earth player, Aramis Ramirez has a VORP of 13.7. The worst VORP on the Nationals belongs to Austin Kearns wit a -9.6. That’s right, Austin Kearns is playing so terribly, that he is having a rather large negative impact on the team when he plays.Click here to see the full team audit of theNationals on BaseballProspectus.com
Click here for a glossary of BP terms
All photos and stats are courtesy of baseball prospectus.
No comments:
Post a Comment